UFC 276 Betting Tips

2 Jul

Written By Ray Walker

How To

Use Betting Units. Set your total amount of money to bet with for today and divided it by 100. That is how much each unit is. E.G if you have $1000 / 100 = $10 Units.
Follow the staking advice.
Check the number of units to stake in the caption of each photo. See the example below.
Always try to use the Best Odds Bookmaker.
Any questions or want general banter? In The Octagon Telegram https://t.me/joinchat/CCLKFh01Ql4wMjdl

UFC 276
Adesanya
VS
Cannonier

Sunday 3rd July

Jessica-Rose Clark VS Julija Stoliarenko

Stoliarenko Via Sub
Stake 0.75 Units
Minimum Odds 5.0
Best Book - Sportsbet

An excellent value spot to start the card off here by taking a Jiu-Jitsu specialist to win via submission at high odds. Stoliarenko has won 8 of her nine wins via submission and all by armbar. Stoliarenko is an armbar from guard specialist and is very dangerous when the fight gets to the mat. Clark has shown poor fight IQ in the past, particularly in her last fight where she wanted to play on the mat with a solid Jiu-Jitsu fighter in Stephanie Egger and lost via armbar.

Uriah Hall VS Andre Muniz

Uriah Hall Win
Stake 1 Unit
Minimum Odds 3.2
Best Book - BET365

This is purely a value bet on a line that has got out of control. In a vacuum, I would expect Muniz to win and probably via sub; however, there are enough things to like on Hall, who should be closer to a $2.70 underdog. Hall has terrific striking, and his kicks can be lethal. Muniz is a grappler who relentlessly hunts for submissions when he gets his opponent to the ground. However, Hall has never been submitted before. Muniz has shown only 1-2 rounds of stamina in his past fights and will struggle late if he can't get Hall out early. Hall has shown intense energy recently, and almost one-third of his victories have come via knockout in the late rounds. Muniz has lost four fights in his career, and all four have come via knockout. This is an excellent value price to take on a live dog.

Brad Tavares VS Dricus Du Plesis

Du Plesis Via KO/TKO or Sub
Stake 2.25 Units
Minimum Odds 2..
Best Book - Topsport

Dricus Du Plessis has 18 professional fights and is yet to see the scorecards, showing a relentless finishing ability when he senses blood in the water. Du Plessis has won both UFC fights via KO but doesn't underestimate his grappling power and robust guillotine chokes. Tavares is a veteran of the game and a gatekeeper who can hang with all but the best fighters. Tavares has been finished in three of his last four losses and has been out of the octagon for a year.

Ian Garry VS Gabe Green

Ian Garry Via Decision
Stake 1.5 Units
Minimum Odds 2.8
Best Book - Lads/Neds

Ian Garry hasn't shown the level we were expecting when he entered the UFC; however, he has shown improvement, which is what we want to see. He is fighting Gabe Green, who is not the most technical fighter, but has a big head and a strong chin. Garry will come into this fight with a strong game plan and fight an intelligent fight, leveraging his height and working his way to a decision to keep his undefeated record intact.

Brad Riddell VS Jalin Turner

Jalin Turner Via KO/TKO or Sub
Stake 2.25 Units
Minimum Odds 2.1
Best Book - Lads/Neds

Jalin Turner has turned the corner in his career over the past 18 months, recording four straight finishes in the first two rounds. Turner is a notorious finisher who has won all 12 wins inside the distance. Turner is huge for the division and uses his height and reach to smother his opposition. Brad Riddell is a strong fighter but has shown a few issues with his striking in recent bouts as he struggles to finish fights. Turner will come out quickly in this one, and I cant trust Riddells durability to stand up to the pressure.

Pedro Munhoz VS Sean O’Malley

Sean O’Malley Via Decision
Stake 2 Units
Minimum Odds 2.5
Best Book - Pointsbet

This is as much a play on Munhoz's durability as it is on the evolution of O'Malley. We have seen over the past few months, and in particular, the press confrences leading up to this fight O'Malley is starting to turn himself into a professional fighter (inside the octagon at least). O'Malley will try and stick to a game plan instead of playing with his food and looking for the highlight-reel finish. In the press conferences this week, O'Malley has said that he is prepared to go the full 15 minutes, which is the first time he's said this. Munhoz is a strong fighter who has never been finished even though he has fought the best fighters in the division. Munhoz has powerful leg kicks that O'Malley will have to respect as it's shown to be his weakness in the past.

Sean Strickland VS Alex Pereira

Alex Pereira Via Decision
Stake 0.75 Units
Minimum Odds 5.75
Best Book - Sportsbet

A few things point me to the Pereira decision here that make this play a terrific value. For starters, Sean Strickland has shown brilliant durability in the past, being finished only once in his career by Zaleski. Pereira is the fighter who knocked out Adesanya in the kickboxing arena and was brought to the UFC solely to force a rematch with Izzy. We have seen some suspect judging in the UFC over the last few months in particular, and with the way the UFC has pushed Pereira up the rankings to force the Adesanya fight, we can't rule out some pre-written scorecards here. Pereira has poor grappling ability, but that isn't what Stricklands go to, and his arrogance will want him to strike with the striker. It must be said as well that there's a chance that Strickland cant grapple anymore with both of his knees fully reconstructed after a big motorcycle crash. At the weigh-ins today, Strickland looked like he had a tricky cut, and as someone who builds into his fights, this may make it difficult for him to step up to the next gear. This may be me overreading the way he was walking, but on the way to the ceremonial weigh-ins, I thought I saw Strickland with a slight limp, showing he may be injured coming into this fight. I thought I would be on Strickland here, but the narratives are starting to build up for Pereira.

UFC 276 Main Card Multi

UFC 276 Super Action Multi

Ray Walker

I am a sports betting analyst who provides data-focused services which allow clients to receive an un-complicated representation of specific statistics. I categorise my statistical model into easy-to-understand formats and offer recommendations on how to use my data to gain an edge over the bookmakers.

https://betwithray.com