Seppo’s Thursday Throwdown November 13
This is an interesting matchup between 2 teams with very similar defences, and very different offences. The Titans have been improving on their run defence and pass rush, and the Colts have been good in these respects all year. Both teams do not have a lot of high-end talent in the back end. Both teams are sound fundamentally, not making major mistakes in the front 7, keeping their discipline in both their run lanes and pass rush lanes. There is sometimes confusion on the backend for both teams as well, especially for the Colts lately.
On offense, the Colts are playing horizontally, using a lot of jet sweep motion and screens. They have a very mobile offensive line who plays great in space but has struggled recently driving the opponent off the ball. They may have a hard time moving the Titans Jeffery Simmons, who has been dominant at times up front. The Colts also have a plethora of different running and receiving options, making it difficult to bet on many RB or WR player props. Rivers also loves to spread the ball around. The only WR I like for total overs are Zach Pascal and Michael Pittman. The only player you can really trust to get targets this game for the Colts is Trey Burton, but that is only because the other options and TE are hurt. If you are going to be on Phillip Rivers, I would lean more on the completions then the yards total.
The Titans on the other hand play vertically, running the ball downhill and throwing deep off of play action. They don’t spread the ball around nearly as much, focusing most of their offence on Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, Corey Davis, and Jonnu Smith. This will be a tough matchup for Henry, but I like the over for him as long as it is in the low 80s, anything 84 and above starts to get dicey. The same with the Colts, I like both of the TE’s in Smith and Firkser. The Titans passing game can be inconsistent, so I will likely be staying away from betting any of the totals, although I like the AJ Brown over more then Corey Davis.
The over, and Titans over, are both good bets. I see the Titans winning this one at home, outdoors, against a team who has been wildly inconsistent week to week and even half to half. This will happen when your 38 year old quarterback looks like a 9 year old trying to get the cut-off man in little league. I’m sorry Mr Rivers but you shouldn’t have to take 4 steps up just to throw the ball 30 yards downfield.