Caveman’s Thursday Throwdown November 12

12th November 2020

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

Matchup Basics

Matchup Insight

We’re back to our divisional rivalries in Thursday night football with this matchup that will have massive playoff repercussions. If the Colts win this game they overtake the Titans in a bid to win the division however if they lose they find themselves in a dogfight with the Dolphins, Raiders, and Browns for the remaining 2 wildcard slots. The Colts hold a commanding advantage in this matchup leading 34-17 thanks mostly to Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. This will be an interesting game with the Titans being very offensively dominated while the Colts rely on their defense to help old man Rivers chalk up his wins.

The Titans offense is absolutely flying, they are well balanced and their play-action plays maybe some of the most devastating in the league. Adam Humphries is looking questionable with a concussion but the Titans have most of the rest of their offense ready to fire and in top shape for the short week. The Titans offense has been next level in home games with Tannehill throwing 15 TDs to only 1 interception and they have scored on 79% of their red zone drives (2nd best in NFL). In every home game this season they have scored a minimum of 24 points and this top tier offense looks set to do this again.

The Colts offense has not had as much luck as the Titans so far this season. They have been a tale of 2 teams which are their 5 indoor games and their 3 outdoor games. In their 5 indoor games, the Colts have scored 29.2 points per game and hold a 4-1 record however outdoors the Colts have scored 20.6 points per game and hold a 1-2 record. Old man Rivers looks to have got too comfortable in the dome as he has thrown only 2 TDs to 4 picks in his 3 outdoor games. This game is of course going to be played outside and Rivers looks set to miss his safety blanket Jack Doyle and most probably Mo Alie-Cox as well. It gets worse for the Rivers and the Colts who have a shocking 54% completion rate in the opposition red zone and a run game that is starting to lack explosiveness.

Defensively these 2 teams are polar opposites. The Colts have been rock solid against the run allowing an average of 62 yards on the ground to opposing running backs but their secondary is coming back to the mean after an explosive start allowing over 300 pass yards in 2 of their last 3 games. The Titans pass defense has been poor this season allowing the 8th most passing yards and a whopping 19 TDs through the air, although you can offset some of these with their 9 interceptions. The run-stopping unit for the Titans has been getting better as the season goes on allowing only 73 rush yards per game to opposition backs since their bye.

Player props to look into are the tight ends for both teams. Both teams have given up plenty of receptions to tight ends this season, over 2.5 receptions for Jonnu Smith looks good but beware Anthony Firkser who has slowly become more integrated playing on almost 49% of snaps last week (95% for Smith). Trey Burton over 2.5 receptions looks great as well as his over 24.5 receiving yards as Indy’s other 2 TEs look set to be out. Ryan Tannehill passing touchdowns over 1.5 looks to be a great bet as well as he has had at least 2 in every home game so far this season.

The Last Word

This contest looks to be a great affair with all the marbles on the line. I’ll be taking the -1.5 on the Titans here as well as the to score over the 24 team points in a match Vrabel will have scripted. In these close TNF divisional matches, I like to look at the coaching staff and the Titans hold the edge here. I’ll be staying away from the total points as I think the bookmakers have this one pretty close.