Caveman’s NRL blog week 5
Caveman's NRL weekend. NRL best bets, free tips, best bets this weekend for footy betting. Get the NRL best bets today with Caveman's sports betting tips. In-depth analysis, research, and a commitment to long-term betting strategy give you footy tips that are the best tips today in Rugby League. NRL free betting tips and bet prediction for almost every game this season.
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Every week Trav and I will break down each game and released a video on all of our best bets. Check out the video, read the blog and have a great week of footy!!
Disclaimer; Both the video and the Caveman blog may not contain our favourite Bets as we keep these for our BSB Footy members, however, the same care and dedication goes into providing our next best picks for you.
Broncos @ Rabbitohs
Thursday 8th April 2021
Game Breakdown
These two teams had very different fortunes last week. The Broncos went down in a heavy loss to the Storm and the Rabbitohs, getting a big win over the Bulldogs. There is a lot we can take out of both of these games, as the Rabbitohs continue to look poor early in games and the Broncos starting well before Papenhuyzen put the game on ice. I may be playing the devil’s advocate here, but I believe this game will go closer than people are expecting.
It’s been a tough ask for the Broncos through the middle this season, where they have been leaking points. Latrell Mitchell is a player that can turn on the jets at any time and will get his opportunities this week with Cody Walker out suspended.
Alex Johnston is a player that is always in terrific try-scoring form. Although Johnston’s work rate is not great, he is a player that owns the left corner post. With Cody Walker’s absence this week, I expect Latrell to play down the left-wing slightly more this week, raising Johnstons try-scoring appeal.
The Rabbitohs are also a team that has not been terrific at defending up the middle so far this season and have left gaps in their defence open at times. Although Jamayne Issako tends to hover over the right edge, I can see him carrying a decent workload through the middle of this week. Isaako has been inconsistent over the past few seasons but has started this year in great form.
Best Bet; Broncos + 20.5 $2.00
Sea Eagles @ Warriors
Friday 9th April 2021
Game Breakdown
The Sea Eagles putrid start to the season continued last week at the hands of the Panthers. The Panthers picked apart Manly’s left edge, showing their defence has nowhere to hide and must be addressed immediately.
The Warriors Started well against the Roosters, then a few errors, and easing off the pressure, and the game was a write-off. The Warriors have looked good in parts this season, however, particularly up the middle. This will be a get right game for the Warriors as they still hold onto finals hopes (A rarity at this stage of the season for Warriors fans).
The Sea Eagles lone bright spot in the backfield this season has been Reuben Garrick. Garrick gets a great match-up this week against an inferior Warriors right edge and should be heavily targeted.
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck has been hot and cold to start the season; however, this has the feeling of a game where he will be hot. RTS is the energiser bunny that never stops and looks even more lethal the further we get into the game. The Sea Eagles haven’t looked the fittest in the latter stages of the game, so I expect Tuivasa-Sheck to be electric late.
SGM; Warriors Win, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck first or last try scorer $8.08
Raiders @ Panthers
Friday 9th April 2021
Game Breakdown
This is perhaps the most challenging game of the round to get a read on. Both of these teams should be active at the business end of the season. The Panthers have shown nothing but brilliance so far this season with a stout defence thrown in. The Raiders have started the season with a few questionable performances. However, the team looks to be almost ready to ascend to the next level. The defence is going to be at the helm for this heavyweight bout.
The Panthers have more games played than tries conceded this season. I’m going to give you a second to let that sink in. The Penrith defence has been lights out, ok, so their draw has been pretty straightforward, but they were very stout when it came time to step up against the Storm. This week they have their next big test against the Raiders, who have been a mixed bag on offence. The Raiders defence has looked better than the numbers suggest, so tries may be harder to come by for Penrith this week.
The Raiders have been an interesting unit so far this season and have been the recipients of some bad luck to boot. This game will be a litmus test for the Raiders to see whereabouts their season is headed.
If the Raiders can penetrate the Penrith defence, one player who loves a try against the Panthers is Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad. CNK has a terrific record with four tries in his three matches vs the Panthers. That being said, it’s hard to pick a try-scorer against this solid defence.
SGM; Total Points Under 35.5 $2.10
Knights @ Titans
Saturday 10th April
Game Breakdown
The Knights season took a hit last week when they lost Mitchell Pearce for the next 10-12 weeks. On the positive side, star fullback Kalyn Ponga will be returning to ease some of the pain. The Knights took an unlucky loss last week after being the best team on the park until they were hit with the injury bug and took a few Tariq charge down specials. This week will be a bounce-back week for the Knights, who still have finals aspirations.
The Titans are still a mixed bag, and although the hype is high and the signings were big, I’m still not buying it. The Titans don’t look like a complete football team, and it will be a while until we see this side start to gel properly. In the Titans favour, I am a fan of their defence which should still keep them competitive.
Kalyn Ponga is a massive inclusion for the Knights, and he should mitigate the loss of Pearce. Ponga has shown his explosiveness early in his past seasons and has scored in his first match in two of the last three years.
David Fifita looks brilliant for the Titans and has picked up exactly where he left off from the Broncos. Fifita gets a great matchup this week, and his involvement should get him going close to the line once again.
Best Bet; Knights +9.5, Kalyn Ponga Try $4.20
Storm @ Bulldogs
Saturday 10th April
Game Breakdown
Now we cant talk about the Storm without saying how special Ryan Papenhuyzen was last night. It was a great display by Paps, but credit must also go to the rest of the Storm team who put him in those positions to score. Before Paps got hot, the Storm was looking very average and was struggling to complete sets. It will be interesting to see which Storm outfit we know this week; now, I’m not saying they’re going to lose, but we might not get that end of the first half intensity this week.
I’m going to start with the positives for the Bulldogs this season. Now that we’ve got through them, the negatives list is quite extensive. The Backs are terrible, the props are awful, they have an intensity issue, and they need to do something about the coaches box. Now I know it’s a system, and they have the potential in all facades to come right, but it’s a painful watch till they can get it right. I will, however, give credit to Josh Jackson and Adam Elliot, who are doing their best in this dumpster fire.
Ryan Papenhuyzen should be on the hunt for another try this week. However, I would limit expectations for him to repeat last week’s theatrics. The Bulldogs have only allowed two tries to fullbacks this season. There is an option going around for Paps to outscore the Bulldogs by 10 points or more. I would love a piece of the other side of this.
If the Bulldogs are going to score, and I’m not saying they are, but their best chance of getting back on the scoreboard will come through Nick Cotric. Cotric returns to the wing this week, where he has a much better strike rate. Cotric also loves scoring against the Storm, grabbing four tries in 3 games last season. Cotric also gets to line up across from the Storm weaker right edge.
SGM; Nick Cotric Try, Ryan Papenhuyzen Try, Bulldogs +27.5. $10.25
Sharks @ Roosters
Saturday 10th April
Game Breakdown
The Sharks have, on the whole, been a good squad this season. They haven’t had any extensive tests, however, as injuries in the Paramatta clash broke them. This game will be a great match to watch and will give us an excellent idea of where the Sharks are heading this season. Remember, Shaun Johnson is still to return to this team as well.
Last week, the Roosters proved that their troops are well stocked with some great youth players up their sleeves. It will be a bit tougher this week against the Sharks, but this Roosters team has a quality structure.
James Tedesco has been brilliant this season, scoring in every match so far. Tedesco has a great chance to make it 5/5 this week against a Sharks team that is missing a few pieces on the back end. Tedesco may be the most dangerous player in the NRL with his ability to score points at any time.
Will Kennedy has been brilliant this season, and his form looks permanent. Kennedy has scored five tries already this season and is becoming the focal point of the Sharks attack. Kennedy’s tally could be even better if he didn’t leave the field in the injury affected round 3 matches.
Best Bet; James Tedesco Try, Will Kennedy Try, Roosters Win. $7.04
Cowboys @ Tigers
Sunday 11th April
Game Breakdown
What a disgrace the Cowboys have been this season. Will it all start to turn around with Jason Taumololo back? Probably not, let’s be honest; this franchise has issues that run deep and may not get it right at all this season. With all that said, if there’s any game to give everything you have to get your first win, this is it.
The Tigers were valiant in defeat last week as they stayed competitive in a high scoring affair. As good as they were, some problems are starting to show. The front row rotation isn’t as fierce as we expected, and the backs outside of Daine Laurie continue to disappoint.
With the switch to fullback Valentine Holmes has been getting better each week. He gets a great matchup this week against a Tigers outfit that has conceded five tries to fullbacks already. Holmes still seems to have lost a step since his glory days, but he needs to carry these backs to avoid a complete disaster.
Daine Laurie grabbed his first try of the season last week, and it should be the first of many. Laurie looks better and better every single week and has owned the #1 jersey so far. The Cowboys have leaked tries to the fullback position this season as well.
SGM; Valentine Holmes Try, Daine Laurie Try, Cowboys +9.5. $12.04
Dragons @ Eels
Sunday 11th April
Game Breakdown
The Dragons got an upset win over the Knights last week. However, if you watched the game, they were luckier than a leprechaun holding a horseshoe playing craps. The Knights got struck down with an injury and still had to rely on two charges down tries to get the win. This game will be a much tougher test, and if Griffins boys can pull this one out, he should head straight down to the cas.
The Eels are beginning to look the part this season, primarily through the middle. It took the Eels a couple of weeks to build the chemistry from their side shuffle, but it showed last week that there could be great things to come.
The Eels defence took a back seat last week, but this week this should be brought front and centre. The Eels have great rotations, even though they effectively play three on the bench with Will Smith as an afterthought. Before last week the Eels were only giving up two tries a game, a number they should get back to this week.
Clint Gutherson has been heavily involved in everything going right for the Eels this season and will look to get back across the line this week. Gutho has an excellent pedigree and an excellent record against the Dragons.
Best Bet; Clint Gutherson Try, Total Points Under 42.5, Eels Win. $6.84
