In the Octagon With Ray & Trav
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UFC Vegas 47
Hermansson
VS
Strickland
Sunday 6th Febuary
Prelims
Denys Bondar VS Malcolm Gordon
Denys Bondar Double Chance, KO/TKO or Sub - Stake 2.5 Units, Minimum Odds 1.85, Best Book - Sportsbet
This is a bet that we absolutely love with Malcolm Gordon being the key fade on this card. Gordon is terrible. Gordon is not a fighter that should have a roster spot in the UFC and was extremely lucky to scratch out a decision against an equally poor fighter in his last bout. Bondar will be making his UFC debut but has shown a very nice well-rounded game in his previous fights. Bondar is the better fighter in every area of this match and short of him leaving his neck or arm in a vulnerable position for an extended time, should have no issue finishing Malcolm X.
Jason Witt VS Phillip Rowe
Phillip Rowe by KO/TKO - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 2.6, Best Book - Pointsbet
Jason Witt is not a good fighter and similar to Malcolm Gordon in the first fight has a chin of glass. Phillip Rowe is the much bigger fighter and in the cage is hungrier to win. Witt will try to get this fight to the ground, however Rowe has strong enough grappling to keep Witt off him. Eventually Witt will gas after attempting too many takedowns and Rowe will put him away. With 3 KO losses this will likely be the last time we will have to watch Jason Witt in the UFC
Danilo Marques VS Jailton Almeida
Danilo Marques Win - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 4.0, Best Book - Sportsbet
Danilo Marques to Win by Decision - Stake 0.5 Units, Minimum Odds 8, Best Book - BET365
This is a value play at odds that are out of line. Almeida is rightfully the favourite in this match, but a UFC debutant should never see a line this wide. Almeida has shown excellent grappling throughout his career, but he faces Marques who is likely the best grappler he has come across. Marques has gone 2-1 so far in the UFC, losing his only match in his last fight against Nzechekwu after completely controlling him for the first 2 rounds. We get to take a shot on Marques here with the odds showing him disrespect.
Alexis Davis VS Julia Stoliarenko
Alexis Davis by Decision - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 1.9, Best Book - Topsport
Alexis Davis is a UFC veteran who has been doing this for years. Davis has fought the best of the best including Ronda Rousey (loss) and Amanda Nunes (Win). Davis is coming to the end of her career and has had her last 7 matches go to decision. Stoliarenko has lost both of her fights in the UFC and will likely have her contract ripped up in front of her when she loses her 3rd in a row. Stoliarenko is just not UFC quality.
Main Card
Julian Erosa VS Steven Peterson
Julian Erosa Double Chance, KO/TKO or Sub - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds Topsport
Julian Erosa is a difficult fighter to read as he swings from the hip and goes out with a kill or be killed attitude. Erosa is equally strong at finishing on the feet or the ground which makes the double chance at plus money an intriguing bet here. Steven Peterson came in 4 pounds overweight for this fight and looked like crap on the scales, which will likely affect his gas tank. Peterson is usually a decision fighter however Erosa is great at forcing a dog fight and this is where we expect to see Peterson’s cardio run low.
Brendan Allen VS Sam Alvey
Sam Alvey Win - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 3.75, Best Book - BET365
Sam Alvey to Win by Decision - Stake 0.5 Units, Minimum Odds 7.0, Best Book - BET365
We have another value play at a price that is well over the odds. Brendan Allen is the 3rd fighter that has been booked to take on Sam Alvey in the last 2 weeks. Allen took this fight on Wednesday and quite literally rolled off the couch put down his milkshake and pizza slice took a couple of rounds in the gym and thinks he is ready to fight. Allen is a great fighter on his day but he has a bad habit of looking past fighters he expects to beat. Allen was brutally knocked out by Chris Curtis a couple of months ago in a fight Curtis took 2 weeks after his previous fight. Allen is spiralling and taking a short notice fight has disaster written all over it. Alvey however is no prizefighter and currently enjoys an 0-6-1 streak. Alvey knows his job is on the line here and he needs to put in the performance of his life to keep his job.
Nick Maximov VS Punahele Soriano
Nick Maximov Double Chance, Decision or Sub - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 2.6, Best Book - Lads/Neds
Soriano is a brutal knockout artist who is looking to finish his opponent early. If Soriano can get the early finish then his gas tank certainly comes into question. Nick Maximov is taking on his toughest opponent yet, however, he has an excellent pedigree coming from the Nick Diaz academy. Maximov is an excellent grappler, can take a punch and has terrific cardio. I expect Maximov to take this fight to the mat where he has a decided advantage. Soriano’s grappling is yet to be tested in the UFC and we could either see him repeatedly working back up and expanding his precious cardio or struggling to regain position and being forced to tap. This is a fight where I would not be surprised if Soriano wins the first round then either loses on the ground or in the hands of the judges.
Jack Hermansson VS Sean Strickland
Sean Strickland by Decision - Stake 2 Units, Minimum Odds 2.6, Best Book - Lads/Neds
We have one of our favourite fighters in the UFC here in Sean Strickland, who as well as being an excellent fighter has zero filter on what he says to anyone. I encourage you all to watch his press conference for this fight if you want a laugh or 3. Strickland is a top-level points fighter who punches hard and has a high fight IQ. Think of a middleweight Tyson Fury. Strickland has knockout power but Hermansson has a very tough chin and I expect him to be able to withstand the barrage of strikes from Strickland. Hermansson is a high-level grappler who is more than proficient on the feet. Hermansson will likely repeatedly try to get this fight to the mat, however, Strickland has very high-level takedown defence and when on the mat is no fish out of water. Strickland has trained with some of the best grapplers in the world including current UFC phenom Khazmat Chimaev who recently destroyed Hermansson in a grappling match. We look forward to Strickland getting the job done here and can’t wait to hear what he has to say in the post-fight interview.
