Hi team, we’ve had some good weeks and some not so good weeks in the regular season, but the playoffs are a completly different beast. I have some brilliant trends that I incorporate into my handicapping which have been succesfull for a long period of time. I hope everyone gets to watch some football this weekend and enjoys the super wildcard weekend.

Tuesday 18th January

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams - 12:15

**Rams -3.5 - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 1.9, Best Book - Sportsmarket**

**Kupp SGM - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 2.5, Best Book - Sportsbet**

**Combo SGM - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 8.0, Best Book - Sportsbet**

When breaking down this match we’ve had to look less at how these teams have done over the entire season but more at where they’re at right now. The Cardinals have looked a shell of themselves over the last month and a half winning only 1 of their last 5 games. The Rams however have won 5 of their last 6, failing only to a big rally last week from the 49ers who had to win to keep their season alive. The Cardinals can almost be seen as a fake team with a diminutive quarterback and a head coach whose college-style offensive scheme is beginning to get found out. The Rams and Cardinals split their series this season but in the Cardinals victory, the Rams were in the worst possible spot they had all season after a big win against the Bucs. I look here to the terrible record that 1st-time QBs have in the playoffs, which will include Kyler Murray making his first postseason start.

Cooper Kupp has been incredible all season and there is nothing to say he won’t keep up his amazing run against the Cardinals today, in fact when his team needs him the most, he has continually stepped up.

Monday 17th January

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs - 12:15

**Chiefs SGM - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 3.4, Best Book - Lads/Neds**

Darrel Williams will be taking the lead back role once again with Clyde Edwards-Helaire out once again. Williams has had plenty of post-season experience and knows what is expected of him in a big game like this. The Chiefs will look to attack the Steelers poor run defence throughout the game and if the Chiefs are up big, Williams will get plenty of carries late. The Steelers have been one of the lowest-scoring teams in the first halves of games where they have struggled to even get to 10 points in the last 3 months. The Chiefs on the other hand are one of the fastest starting teams in the league scoring 133 first-half points in the last 7 weeks compared to 22 for the Steelers. When these teams met up in week 16 it was 23-0 to the Chiefs at half-time. Williams had 55 rush yards in this match where he was the backup running back, taking over in the second half for an injured CEH.

San Francisco 49ers VS Dallas Cowboys - 08:30

**Total Points Over 51 - Stake 2 Units, Minimum Odds 1.9, Best Book - Sportmarket**

I usually prefer to be on under points in wildcard weekend, but this one keeps jumping out to me as a high scoring affair. Both of these offences match up with their opponents weaknesses and this should result in a high scoring shoot out. I can’t pick a side in this match as I believe the line is about right.

**Cowboys/49ers SGM - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 3.4, Best Book - Sportsbet**

Deebo has passed this total in 7/8 games since he has been used in the backfield. Deebo is one of the most explosive weapons in the NFL and I cant see his usage in the running game slowing down, when he will be a matchup nightmare. Amari Cooper will be Prescott’s go-to receiver on the outside of the field and is finally starting to look a bit healthier. Cooper will be a mismatch for the 49ers poor cornerbacks.

Philidelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 05:00

I’m finding it tough to get to the line or total in this game. As much as I like the Bucs to win outright, this spread is too high for me to back and I can’t back the Eagles with an inferior team. What we do have here is a fantastic play on Rob Gronkowski. Gronk has really stepped up over the last few weeks in the absence of Chris Godwin then Antonio Brown. The Buccaneers will be without their top 2 running backs for this match as well which will make Brady want to look for his safety blanket as a chain mover. Mike Evans will be shadowed by top cornerback Darius Slay all day and will struggle to get too much seperation. The Eagles have given up the most touchdowns to opposing tight ends in the league and are one of only a handful of teams to allow over 1000 receiving yards to the position. When Gronk scores he loves to score in bunches as he has done 3 times already this season, which makes the 2+ touchdowns a nice value play.

**Bucs SGM - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 3.8, Best Book - Sportsbet**

Rob Gronkowski 2+ Touchdowns - Stake 0.5 Units, Minimum Odds 7.0, Best Book - Pointsbet

Sunday 16th January

Las Vegas Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals - 08:30

**Josh Jacobs SGM - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 6.5, Best Book - Sportsbet**

Josh Jacobs has been allowed to run freely since Rich Bisaccia has taken over the Raiders and the last few weeks he’s shown the caliber of running back that he is. Jacobs has gone past this rushing total in the last 3 games and scored in the last 2. The wildcard round is traditionally a lower scoring affair where the ball is kept on the ground and chances aren’t taken in the red-zone. This means if the ball is within the 5 yard line then it’s going to Jacobs over a riskier passing play.

**Raiders +5 - Stake 3 Units, Minimum Odds 1.9, Best Book - Topsport**

**Raiders Win - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 2.8, Best Book - BET365**

There are several reasons I have this as a fantastic play this week, starting with one that took me a while to get my head around, the Raiders really arent that bad.

The Raiders had a very tough strength of schedule this season, finishing the season with the 8th toughest line-up of opponents. When we compare this to the Bengals who had the 4th easiest strength of schedule we see a vast difference in these teams opposition. Teams that play a harder strength of schedule usually have more success in the wildcard round. Going back a number of years we find a 47-22 straight up record and a 48-22-2 (both 68%) ATS record favouring this trend. When the strength of schedule is at opposite ends of the spectrum like it is here, we have a 29-7 81% straight up record and 28-6 82% ATS record favouring this trend.

Quarterbacks who are competing in their first post-season match tend to struggle, recording an 11-31 26% record. Now although neither of these quarterbacks has played in the playoffs before, last week was the first week of the playoffs for the Raiders as they were eliminated with a loss. Derek Carr is also a seasoned veteran now who is used to performing on the big stage while Joe Burrow is essentially in an extension to his rookie season after having no offseason last year and then tearing his ACL halfway through the season.
The Bengals are a young team that is just learning to win for the first time in years. The future is bright for the Bengals however they will likely be overwhelmed by the glitz and glammar of the playoffs. Derek Carr has been impressive throughout his career in primetime games, holding a 12-6 record on stand-alone fixtures (Thursday and Monday). Joe Burrow won his only primetime game this season however that was because of a last-second field goal against lowly Jacksonville.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills -

New Added

**Bills/Patriots SGM - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 3.3, Best Book - Lads/Neds**

**Bills -4 - Stake 2.5 Units, Minimum Odds 1.9, Best Book - Topsport**

The Bills have gone through the highs this season of looking like the best team in football, and the lows of losing to the Jaguars. The Bills are the most complete team in football with their run game picking up towards the end of the season, contributing to their 4 game win streak. The Patriots on the other hand are on a 1-3 slide and starting to look like the team that was going to need a year or 2 to grow into the system.

Josh Allen is now a veteran of the playoffs, entering the big show for the 3rd consecutive season, making the conference championship game last season. Allen knows what the playoffs are all about now and is well used to the excitement surrounding it. Mac Jones is a rookie and rookies don’t fare well in the playoffs. The last rookie to win a playoff game was Russel Wilson in 2012 and that team was carried by the run game and defence. Rookie QBs carry a 5-20 20% winning record in the playoffs.
Playoff home teams that lost in the conference championship game the previous season like the Bills, carry an incredible 44-8 85% record straight up in their first round of the playoffs the following season. The same stat records a 34-16 68% record ATS.
Playoff home favourites that were in the playoffs the previous season and are facing a side coming off a loss (Patriots) are 15-3 83% straight up and 14-5 74% ATS.
The Bills have the best defence in football and hold mismatches at almost every offensive position except possibly running back, which is very close with Singletary’s current form. The only reason we are getting a fair number here is because the blizzard game is baked into the line. Without the blizzard game this line is likely pushing close to 7.

Rays NFL Tips Wildcard Round