Caveman’s Turkey Day Fiesta
26th November 2020
Houston Texans @ Detroit Lions
Matchup Basics
Matchup Insight
A doubleheader this week on turkey day, I cant wait for extra football but let’s be honest turkey is as dry a methodist A.A meeting. Our early game pits the 4-6 Lions vs the 3-7 Texans with 2 teams that have been terrible on defense in all facets of the game. The Lions are a traditional thanksgiving football team playing their first game in 1934 brought on as a marketing tool to sell seats, and they have a 37-40-2 record all time.
The Detroit offense is banged up and will rely on veterans to get the job done if their top guys can’t get healthy fast enough. Both De’Andre Swift and Kenny Golladay have practiced in some fashion over the last 2 days but their participation Wednesday will be key to determining if they’ll be eligible or not. Detroit laid an egg last week but that felt more like preparation for this week in fact since 2015 teams that have not scored in a match have gone 20-5-2 80% ATS the following week. The lowest total points scored in Lion’s last 4 non-divisional thanksgiving games was 57 which includes a 34-31 overtime loss vs the Texans in 2012. Matthew Stafford is averaging almost 300 passing yards in thanksgiving games throughout his career and will have no trouble finding his receivers vs this poor Texans secondary. The Lions are 4-0 to the over in their home games this season.
The Texan’s offense is soaring under Deshaun Watson as of late with the signal-caller scoring 15 TDs to only 2 INTs since Romeo Crennel took over. The offense has been prolific in the passing game with Will Fuller and Brandon Cooks forming a strong partnership out wide which has been good enough to make up for the lack of a run game. Watson’s rushing numbers have also greatly increased under Crennel averaging 31 yards per game compared to 14.5 beforehand. The Texans have also been one of the best teams at scoring away from home going 4-1 to the over in away games this season. The Houston offense is expected to be getting Laremy Tunsil back although the lack of Detroit pass rush mitigates this return, they are also expected to be without Randall Cobb but they have great depth at receiver with Keke Coutee set to play a big role in the offense.
The Detroit defense has been horrific this season and is rated as a bottom 5 defense in most statistical categories. The Lions have given up the 3rd most rushing yards in the league and the most rushing touchdowns. They have given up the second-most first downs and the most red-zone touchdowns in the NFL, this defense is about as safe as using that 2-year-old condom in the back of your wallet. Detroit has only managed 10 turnovers so far this season and it doesn’t look like getting any better this week as they’ll be missing Jeff Okudah and facing a Texans unit that doesn’t turn the ball over much. The Lions are also the 4th worst scoring defense allowing over 28 points per game so far this season.
The Texan’s defense has also been as terrible as the Lions this year making over 2 interceptions and only 5 total turnovers so far this season. The Texans have allowed the most rushing yards and the second-most total yards and just look horrendous whenever they’re on the field. JJ Watt has looked pedestrian so far this season until last week were he started swatting passes like the good old days so he will be the key to this pass rush and making Stafford rush his throws.
Player props to follow this week are mainly based around matchups as a lot of Lion’s props haven’t been released with question marks around a lot of the lion’s weapons. Will Fuller gets a strong matchup vs Desmond Trufant so over 70.5 yards looks strong with Fuller being the main deep threat. Brandon Cooks will be a reception hogg with Randall Cobb out, he has averaged 9 targets since Crennel took over and should take advantage of the extra looks this week. Deshaun Watson has been on target recently and hasn’t thrown an interception since week 5 so Watson not to throw an interception looks to be a nice play as well. For the Lions, if Swift is playing get on his rushing yards on anything up to 68 as he is the undisputed number 1 now. Marvin Jones gets a great matchup vs Vernon Hargreaves so getting over 4.5 receptions or 55.5 receiving yards both look good value. TJ Hockenson should see some good targets and even though his number isn’t out yet (predicted 3.5) his over should be good and he has a good chance to get into the endzone. Matthew Stafford averages almost 300 passing yards on thanksgiving so his passing yards number of 272.5 is sitting a bit low vs a poor defense.
The Last Word
We get 2 offenses that like to score points and 2 defenses that don’t enjoy playing football on a fast indoor field. This game looks to set up to go to the over although I will be a lot more confident if De’Andre Swift pulls through concussion protocol. I will lean to the Texans on the spread as well as they have shown to be a much-improved team in the last few weeks while the Lions have gone the other way. Thanksgiving football is always fun and I expect this to be a fast-paced end-to-end game with lots of points and no defense.
Washington Football Team @ Dallas Cowboys
Matchup Insight
Our second and now final game on Thanksgiving puts 2 foes in the NFC Least up against each other with the winner moving to 4-7 and the top of the division. This will be the 2nd game in the series with Washington comfortable winners in the first leg. The Cowboys have played Washington 9 times on thanksgiving winning 8 of them and 7/9 scoring 47 points or more. Obviously, it’s difficult to bet on the Cowboys after the season they’ve had but they have looked a lot better in their last 2 games, it may be more difficult however to bet on Washington who was on track to get beaten by the Bengals last week until Burrow tore his knee to shreds. As I’m not a fan of the Cowboys, Washington or turkey I’m backing the stuffing and gravy to come up big on Thursday night.
The offenses for both of these teams have been inconsistent, to say the least. The Cowboys have a prolific receiving corp, unfortunately, the red rifle has shown the same ability to find them like a turkey with its head cut off. Last week he targeted his top 4 receiving options equally with Amari Cooper showing his class to come up with the better game, that’s not going to cut the turkey this week. Washington has one of the best pass defenses in the league so big red will have to find his mismatches in coverage until it breaks down which it has been known to do late in games. This week the positive matchup comes in the slot for Cee Dee Lamb. As good as Washington has been on the outside they have struggled against slot receivers and the Cowboys have an emerging blue-chip talent there. The other matchup the rifle should target is Dalton Schultz vs Cole Holcomb. Washington has been poor over the middle of the field and has allowed 6 touchdowns to tight ends already this season. Ezekiel Elliot had his get right game against the Vikings and will look to carry that form into the Washington rematch. Elliot has struggled with fumbles this season and that worry will dry him out like an overcooked carrot, luckily for him he only has to worry about the run game this week as he won’t see much action in the passing game. The key to this game will be getting some type of blocking on the offensive line to be able to stop this crushing Washington pass rush. Zach Martin was out in the first meeting between these teams but will be the decisive player on this Dallas team as he will be the one to try and guard rookie sensation Chase Young.
The Washington offense is like a slice of pumpkin pie, ugly to think about but surprisingly pleasant on the way down. This offensive line has improved with Brandon Scherff back in the line up allowing only 2 sacks per game in each of the last 4 weeks. The immobile Alex Smith is looking stronger each week but he, unfortunately, is suffering because of his lack of help in this offense. Smith has been at his best over the years when throwing screen passes and getting the ball to his running backs, unfortunately, that’s not going to get the job done this week. The Cowboys are one of the best teams in the NFL at stopping receiving backs, giving up only 193 yards on 33 receptions (lowest and 2nd lowest marks in the NFL). This spells bad news for Smith’s favorite target JD McKissic who has seen 33 targets over the last 3 weeks. When Alex Smith can’t find his running backs he looks for his tight ends, unfortunately, the Cowboys have been efficient at blowing up tight ends this season as well as allowing the 7th fewest yards to tight ends. This spells bad news for Alex Smith and the Football Teams’ ability to move the ball through the air but good news for Antonio Gibson who will have to carry this offense on his back to get them past the Cowboys here. The Cowboys defense has been poor against the pass in the red zone but has been even worse trying to stop the run. The Cowboys have given up over 1500 yards on the ground already this season (2nd most in NFL) and only 115 of them were by Dalvin Cook. Terry Mclaurin will be the one Washington receiver that looks set to benefit from the Cowboy’s ability to blow up his favorite targets. Mclaurin is getting 9 targets a game which should be the low end this week and has gone over 70 yards receiving in 8/10 games this season, if he can get over his ankle injury he will be the beer to wash down this Thanksgiving feast.
Player props to keep an eye out for in this one include CeDee Lamb over 54.5 receiving yards as he gets the best matchup in the slot. Ezekiel Elliot over 70.5 rushing yards looks good as this is a guy who has over 400 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns in his 3 previous thanksgiving games. Antonio Gibson will have to carry this offense on his back so over 55.5 rushing yards will be a bit too low as long as Washington doesn’t get down by too much early. Terry Mclaurin over 76.5 receiving yards and 5.5 receptions will both be great plays as long as he pulls through his ankle injury in time.
The Last Word
This game is going to be a battle for supremacy in the NFC East with the winner taking their place atop Plymouth rock. The history in this matchup both recently and on thanksgiving shows high scoring matches and I lean this way in this game as well. The spread is currently -2.5 to Dallas and I take a lean towards them as well. The favorite on thanksgiving has gone a massive 35-13 73% against the spread since 2003 and is the only play I could make on this game if I were to get to the window on it. Enjoy your Thanksgiving everyone, eat lots, drink more, protest a little, and get set for a great day of football. I know ill be thankful for football, gambling, and the legend who fermented barley, water, hops, and yeast. Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
