Caveman’s Thursday Throwdown Week 11

19th November 2020

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

Matchup Basics

Matchup Insight

We have a battle of the birds on Thursday night and I’m not talking about a brawl over a dropped 20 in some shady strip club in Reno, we have the surprise package Cardinals vs the offense only Seahawks. This game is of course the second iteration in this close rivalry this season with the first episode going to the Cardinals 37-34 in overtime. That game had over 1090 yards of offense and each team made 30 first downs in what was a fantasy guru wet dream. The Cardinals are flying high at the moment winning 4 of their last 5 games and scoring at least 30 points in each of them. Alternatively, after a hot start, the Seahawks are flying against the wind with a fractured wing after losing 3 of their last 4 although they have managed to score 34 or more points in 3 of those games. This looks to be another offensively fueled game where a loss from either team could drop them into serious trouble for a wildcard spot.

Russel Wilson started as the MVP favorite and led the Seahawks to a 5-0 start with a 19-3 TD-INT ratio. Since then they have gone 1-3 and Wilson has thrown 9 TDs and 7 INTs as well as 3 fumbles all lost. It’s amazing that when not facing elite defenses they have still been able to put huge point totals on the board. The offensive line in Seattle is starting to show just how cheap and poorly constructed it really is allowing the elusive Russel Wilson to get sacked 11 times in the last 2 games. A positive coming into this game is their running back stable is finally starting to look a lot healthier although Chris Carson is still questionable, Carlos Hyde looks set to play relegating DeeJay Dallas back to the sound booth. Seattle has averaged a league-high 34 points per home match so far this season but they have had their top 2 receivers healthy all season until this week where Tyler Lockett has yet to practice with a knee injury. Lockett of course tore up the Cardinals last time with a mammoth total of 15 receptions for 200 yards and 3 TDs. If Lockett is missing expect a bigger game from David Moore as DK Metcalf will be tailed from his morning constitutional till the end of the game by Patrick Peterson.

The Cardinal’s offense is soaring right now with 5 straight games where they have scored over 30 points led by the dual-threat Kyler Murray. Murray has scored at least 3 total touchdowns in 7/10 games so far this season including scoring a TD on the ground in 9/10 and at least 60 yards rushing in all but 2 games. At this stage of the season, Kyler is ahead of Lamar Jacksons MVP season in all statistical categories. Arizona is currently leading the league in total offense led by the top rushing attack in the league. Deandre Hopkins is currently the most talked-about receiver in the league after that incredible catch last week, Hopkins and Christian Kirk will both be in for huge games this week with the 2 top Seahawks CBs out.

The Seattle defense is on a historic pace to be the worst defense in the league. They have given up over 4000 total yards led by an NFL high 3180 passing yards. This gets even worse for the Seahawks where they’ll be missing their top 2 CBs this week. The Seahawks have given up over 300 passing yards to every QB not named Kirk Cousins and I cant see that streak coming to an end this week. As bad as the Seahawks secondary has been they have been a lot stronger against the run allowing the 4th least yards to opposing running backs and only 3.7 yards per attempt. Jamal Adams has been a huge bust when healthy so far this season with one of the worst pass defense grades in the league.

The Arizona defense has been average which is a huge improvement for them this season. They are ranking between 14th-18th in almost every statistical category. One aspect where Arizona has been finding success is rushing the passer as they have blitzed the QB the second most in the league. Unfortunately for this defense (and to a lesser extent the offense) they have allowed the second-most penalties in the NFL and need to get this under control if they are looking to make a run in January. Patrick Peterson will have his hands full with DK Metcalf this week but he did manage to shut him down in the previous meeting. This is a bend but doesn’t break defense that allows plenty of yards and first downs but tightens up when getting towards the endzone.

Player props to keep an eye on for Seattle include David Moore to get into the endzone at 4.20. Moore is the number 3 receiver on the Seahawks and has been having a decent enough season with 4 TD catches to his name already this year. If Lockett can’t get over his injury Moore will be a focal point of this offense with Metcalf being tied up by Peterson. I haven’t found any yardage props for Moore yet as the books will be holding that one close waiting for news on Lockett, but if Lockett is out take Moore on anything up to 60 yards receiving.

For the Cardinals, I like both Christian Kirk and Deandre Hopkins matchups this week, especially in the red zone. Kyler Murray over 55.5 rush yards seems great for a guy who has been using his legs consistently all season. Murray over 281.5 passing yards looks a nice number as I have been taking the yards over for all QBs playing the Seahawks this season.

The Last Word

Expect to see a great offense dominated game that has plenty of points and some big plays. I don’t expect too much from the running game in this although there is a chance of light rain which could force the game to the ground a bit more and stall the deep passes. I lean towards the over in this game like no one in their right mind should be taking these 2 prolific offenses under the total but I don’t have a whole lot of faith in that. I will be abstaining from giving a meaningful call on the spread as this could once again go to overtime and be a very close game. The Cardinals have a great record in Seattle, but after 2 straight losses, the Seahawks will be out for blood. In the last few years whenever a team has trailed by 7 or more at home at halftime then won that game and played on the road the next week (like the Cardinals this week) they have gone 8-22 27% against the spread in that road game. For that reason only I will take a slight lean to the Seahawks but with very little confidence. Enjoy what is sure to be a cracker of a game.