Caveman’s Super Saturday Week 15
19th December 2020
Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos
Matchup Basics
Matchup Insight
This is my favorite time of the season we know playoffs are getting close when we get treated to a double dose of Saturday night football. The Bills headline our first game at Mile High Stadium and will be riding the low cloud and thin air after a statement win over the Steelers on primetime last week. Josh Allen has looked incredible over the last 6 weeks and is starting to get his name mentioned in the MVP race. The Broncos also got a win last week in a very ugly road game in Carolina. This game was a masterclass from Drew Lock yet they still struggled to beat a Panthers outfit that was missing their top 2 offensive weapons.
The Bills offense has been on fire lately, they even managed to rush for over 100 yards against the strong Steelers run defense. Josh Allen has shown his entire career what he can do with his legs and this year he is showing that his arm can handle some of the workloads as well. Allen may be starting to feel some of the fatigue creeping into his game this week as he is off two games against strong defenses in the 49ers and Steelers and will be traveling to Denver which is never a nice road trip for anyone. Cole Beasley had a down game last week which fits exactly into our pattern of him performing at his best in away fixtures. Beasley has 129 receiving yards and 0 TDs in his last 4 games combined yet he has managed 351 receiving yards and 2 TDs in his last 3 away games going over 100 yards each time. Stefon Diggs is the ever-present danger in this offense and will be required to be double-teamed all day or else he will break out for a huge game.
The Broncos offense although they got the win last week did not inspire a lot of confidence. The receivers are slow and Lock has too much of a habit of targeting his tight ends. KJ Hamler flashes potential in the slot but he is also prone to get lost in the defensive shuffle. The run game has shown what it can do over the last 2 weeks but still has been struggling with yards per carry having too many attempts that get swallowed up at the line of scrimmage. Noah Fant should be getting healthier for this one and will be a target hog against a team that has been poor over the middle.
The Bills defense has come light years from where they were at the start of the season. Ed Oliver is becoming that big unit in the middle of the line and Matt Milano being healthy again has helped to provide the leadership this team was lacking. I still think they suffer a bit in coverage and have given up too many defensive penalties. If this unit can continue to play the way they have been then they should be able to glide past the Bills however if they turn up tired which is a strong possibility I can see them leaving gaps open and allowing their weaknesses to be exposed against a QB that had a great game last week.
The Broncos defense has been hampered by injuries all season and is starting to look like one of the more beat upsides in the league. Add to this the fact their star kicker Brandon McManus will also be out and we have a defense and special teams to be worried about. The Broncos secondary is down to 9,10 and jack and is likely to be playing a lot of 3 safety sets to mitigate their horrific cornerbacks. This shows a wide-open runway for Josh Allen through the air and he should be looking to attack these weaknesses. The Bronco’s run defense has been poor of late and their only saving grace in this game is that the Bills stutter most of the time in the run game.
Player props I like for the Broncos in this one include, KJ Hamler over 36.4 receiving yards where once again we are taking the slot receiver against the Bills. Noah Fant over 3.5 receptions looks great as the Bills have been poor against tight ends but with Matt Milano getting back to peak levels I prefer his receptions over his yards. Tim Patrick is a guy that has been playing exceptionally well as of late and has been the Bronco’s best wideout this season, unfortunately, he should attract a lot of Tre’davius White this week so under 50.5 receiving yards for Patrick.
For the Bills, I love Cole Beasley over 64.5 receiving yards. Beasley’s number is down this week because of a poor game last week against one of the best slot corners in the league. Beasley has been a lot more consistent away from home and will likely be Allen’s favorite target once again. The Broncos have allowed a lot of rushing yards to quarterbacks this season and this won’t change against Josh Allen who has been great on his feet this season and should be able to go over his 29.5 total.
The Last Word
The Bills will be looking forward to an easier match before the last 2 games vs divisional rivals. My only issue is I see this being a flat spot for the Bills who will be more focused on their next two games. The Bills are on a short week and played a very physical game vs the Steelers on Sunday night. If it wasn’t for the Broncos defense is so banged up I would be looking at them on the +5.5, unfortunately, I can’t get behind them with such a bad defense that won’t be able to stop anyone so I will lean to the Bills -5.5 but it won’t make my ticket this week. I like the total of over 49.5 points as I can see both teams getting the points they need in this game. I am more confident in the total but it also comes with a worry that the Bills phone it in after a big game last week.
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
Matchup Basics
Matchup Insight
Our second game on Saturday has the Carolina Panthers up against the number 1 seed in the NFC the Green Bay Packers. The Packers have been rolling on offense so far this season led by MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers and target machine Devante Adams. The Panthers were unlucky last week losing against the Broncos by 5 points even though they were without a bunch of starters due to COVID.
The Packers offense has been incredible all season, this team just can’t stop scoring. The run game has taken off again after having a lull in the middle of the season. Over the last 3 weeks, the Jones and Williams tandem has caught fire again and started to cement this offense as the most explosive in the NFC. Allen Lazard has come back from injury slowly but should be back up over 70% of snaps this week taking some of those wasted snaps off Valdes-Scantling. MVS may be one of the most frustrating receivers in football. The man has hands of butter, struggles to get open, and would not be a starter on very many NFL teams at all. Over the last 5 weeks, MVS has played on a decreasing amount of snaps each week.
The Panther’s offense has been as explosive as they can be without Christian McCaffery. Mike Davis started great but has receded back to the mean over the last 6 weeks as he has been found out by defenders and has been added into the defensive gameplan. The wide receiver group really missed DJ Moore last week, Robby Anderson is the number 1 guy in this offense but Moore is incredible at drawing coverage away from him giving Bridgewater a plus matchup on almost every passing play. Curtis Samuel is one of the best gadget guys in the league and has been steadily improving in the slot. Teddy Bridgewater has shown a lot of the potential he has this season and plays his best football as an underdog. Matt Rhule has put his stamp on this team and they have in return bought completely into his system. This makes the Panthers dangerous at this part of the season where they will have no reason not to give everything every down of the game to get Rhule a few late-season wins.
The Packer’s defense has been slightly above average this season but still doesn’t scare opponents. There are great players at every level of this defense but they are surrounded by average at best guys. This defense has been trending upwards however especially in the run game where they have been strong over the last 2 weeks. The pass rush has quietly been potent this season getting to the QB 35 times even though they only blitz on 25% of QB dropbacks. Jaire Alexander will be matching up with Robby Anderson this week and should have the advantage of the match-up.
The Panther’s defense has been slowly improving but will still need to have a good draft and offseason before we can start calling them a decent group. They have been especially good in the run-stopping game as of late allowing 100 rush yards only once in the last 5 games. The coverage unit however has been poor all season and will have to be the main area to improve next season. The Panthers have been especially poor to tight ends allowing the most receptions to opposing tight ends in the league.
Player props I like for the Packers include Devante Adams over 87.5 receiving yards. I’m aware this is a big number but Adams may be one of the best receivers in the game right now and will look towards a big game in primetime. Adams to have 2 touchdowns is paying $3.25 and could be a better option than not for Adams to get a brace. I also like Adams to score in the first half of the game. Adams has scored a first-half TD in 7 of his last 8 games so $2.30 looks a nice number for him to continue the streak. Robert Tonyan is a guy I like to get into the endzone in this one as well at $2.64 vs a bad tight end defense. Allen Lazard over 37.5 receiving yards and MVS under 39.5 receiving yards are props I also like.
For the Panthers there’s not too much I like but Mike Davis over 25.5 receiving yards looks like great value against a poor receiving back defense. Teddy Bridgewater over 264.5 passing yards also looks a nice cover number as the Panthers will more than likely be throwing the ball a lot.
The Last Word
The Panthers have been great at covering spreads as underdogs all season covering ⅚ spreads as away dogs this season. The only one they missed was against the Bucs when they were in a big win spot. As much as I love the Packers to have a great game here at +8 I lean towards the Panthers to cover as they’re a team that doesn’t stop playing till the final whistle. The total is 52 which I love the over. The only thing that slightly worries me is the weather playing a part with cold temperatures expected and a chance of rain. This weather however won’t affect Rodgers and Bridgewater however as they are both used to cold weather. Enjoy your super Saturday as the business end of the season is officially underway.
