Caveman’s NRL Blog Week 4
Caveman's NRL weekend. NRL best bets, free tips, best bets this weekend for footy betting. Get the NRL best bets today with Caveman's sports betting tips. In-depth analysis, research, and a commitment to long-term betting strategy give you footy tips that are the best tips today in Rugby League. NRL free betting tips and bet prediction for almost every game this season.
Every week Trav and I will break down each game and released a video on all of our best bets. Check out the video, read the blog and have a great week of footy!!
Panthers @ Sea Eagles
Thursday 1st April 2021
Game Breakdown
The Panthers came out with a win last week in the Grand Final replay; whether they deserved this win or not is for you to decide, but the success didn’t come without a price. The Panthers will be without Dylan Edwards for the next few weeks, prompting a shift to fullback for Stephen Crichton’s. Crichton has limited exposure at fullback, but in 2 games off the bench last season, slotting into that position, he managed to get two tries.
The Sea Eagles season has started to come off the rails, reaching their 3rd straight defeat last week and a slim chance of correcting that this week. There have been bright spots within the team, but that won’t make too much difference this week.
With Nathan Cleary’s return this week, the Panthers have their midfield talisman back, who will be looking to continue his terrific form against Manly. Cleary has jagged a try in his last two matches against the Sea Eagles, and Manly have let in 3 tries to halves this season.
Stephen Crichton’s move to fullback opens the door for Matt Burton to slot into the left centre position. This move is excellent news for Viliame Kikau, who will be playing in between 2 playmakers and has a great chance to get over the line. This centre switch is also great news for Brian To’o. He should see multiple opportunities with the ball expected to go his way all day.
There’s not much to like about the Manly side in this matchup, especially with their recent injury issues in the second row. Josh Schuster looks a great player, but he will be matching up with a strong Penrith defence. The best of the Sea Eagles backs will be Reuben Garrick, who will go up against the weaker Panthers right edge. Potentially the best Manly bet to make will be the Sea Eagles to score over 9.5 points, but the Panthers do have the best defence this season, so move with this at your own risk.
SGM; Nathan Cleary Try, Viliame Kikau Try, Panthers Win 13+. $7.75
Rabbitohs @ Bulldogs
Friday 2nd April 2021
Game Breakdown
The Rabbitohs managed to grab a great win last week against a Roosters outfit whose fortunes may be about to change. The Bunnies have already figured out how they will win games this season, and that’s by attacking with their left edge. Cody Walker grabbed a double last week but has had inconsistent play so far this season, so the lowly Bulldogs could be a great matchup to get his season back on track. Wayne Bennet is on the right track with this team now, but there is still a long way to go, as he says.
The Bulldogs have looked abysmal over the last two weeks, putting up successive doughnuts. The three try display against the Knights looks to be the odd game out, with the Bulldogs having few bright spots on their roster. Nick Meaney will move to fullback this week in a move that feels like putting out a house fire with a garden hose. There is a long way to go for the Bulldogs, and it feels like they are moving in the wrong direction. The Bulldogs’ only saving grace is Lachlan Lewis’s return, but when the house is already on fire, this move may take a while to pay off.
The Rabbitohs have been robust, moving to the left side of the field, and Alex Johnston has been the recipient of this attack. Johnston has scored in his last three matches against the Bulldogs, and he looks a great chance of scoring once again.
One area where the Bulldogs have historically found success against the Rabbitohs is on the right edge. With Raymond Fatalier-Mariner out, this gives Corey Waddell a spot in the starting line up. Waddell is paying well to get across the line, as is any Bulldogs player.
SGM; Alex Johnston Try, Corey Waddell Try, Rabbitohs 13+. $18.00
Broncos @ Storm
Friday 2nd April 2021
Game Breakdown
The Broncos managed to grab their first win of the season last week. However, with only 2 points on the board at half time vs the Bulldogs, it doesn’t bode well heading to Melbourne to play an angry Storm outfit. A quarantine situation with the recent outbreak in Queensland will also affect their training week and hurt their backing up chances. The Broncos haven’t beaten the Storm since 2015, with many significant losses in that time.
The Storm may have got very unlucky last week (ill let you decide that) in a tough late loss against the Panthers. This loss gives the Storm back to back defeats for the first time since 2018. Craig Bellamy will have the Storm in top form for this match, and I would be anxious for any team playing against them, let alone the lowly Broncos.
For the Broncos to have any chance in this match, they will have to attack the Storms poor right edge. Herbie Farnworth has shown great potential this season, and none more so than a great display last week. Farnworth and David Mead will be the two most likely Broncos to get over the line if they can get there at all.
The Storm has a few great try scorers who will be hungry to score a meat-pie. Jarome Hughes has a terrific try-scoring record against the Broncos, getting across the line 4 times in his last three matches against them. Hughes pays quite generously and will be itching to score after failing to get there so far this season.
Another Storm player who has an outstanding record against the Broncos is Josh Addo-Carr. Addo-Carr has scored two doubles in his last four matches against the Broncos and will be playing against the weaker Brisbane right edge defensively. The Fox will also be in his 100th match for the club; milestone matches are always a great way to attack the betting market. Christian Welch is also playing in a milestone match if you’re inclined that way.
SGM; Jarome Hughes try, Josh Addo-Carr 2+ Tires. $11.00
Cowboys @ Sharks
Saturday 3rd April
Game Breakdown
The Sharks great start to the season came crashing back down to earth last week with a tough loss to the Eels. We can only wonder how this game would have gone if the Sharks had anyone left on their bench or access to an 18th man. The difficulties they faced last week will roll over to this week as well, with Katoa and Nikora failing to make the squad this week through injury. These injuries will give Mawene Hiroti (ugghhh) and Teig Wilton chances on the starting side.
The Cowboys have decided to ring the changes after yet another horrific defeat last week. These changes give the feeling of painting a festival portaloo, you can give it a new colour, but we all know what’s underneath it. There will be a new starting second row for the Cowboys, and the intelligent change is finally being made with Josh Mcguire lining up at lock. Valentine Holmes got his wish last week and was shifted to his “preferred” position of fullback. Holmes, however, didn’t play as good as he said he would and shows similar signs of his play on the Jets practise squad.
With two teams that have rung the changes, this lines up to be a defensively dominated game. I struggle to see where either sides’ points will come from as they both wait for reinforcements to join their squads to remain competitive with the leagues bottom eight sides.
The Sharks look the better side this week, and I have been high on them this season. It just wouldn’t come as a shock to me if the Sharks are beaten or fail to cover the spread in a low scoring affair. The best hope the Sharks have to get on the scoreboard comes from Will Kennedy. Kennedy looked strong last week before leaving the field at halftime. The Cowboys have conceded three tries to fullbacks this season, and Kennedy has scored three.
The Cowboys have struggled against the right edge of the Sharks in the past and have not shown great defence there so far this season, which could lead Teig Wilton to cross the line.
For the Cowboys to have any chance, they will have to attack the Sharks’ right edge, which is being lightly guarded by Connor Tracey and Mawene Hiroti (ugghhh). This could bring Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow into try-scoring calculations after being moved to the wing.
Best Bet; Total Points Under 42.5 $1.90
Raiders @ Titans
Saturday 3rd April
Game Breakdown
The Titans put on a dominating display last week and should feel proud that they put a good score on the Cowboys. Well, as proud as you can feel when you beat your six year old in a game of 1 on 1. Promising signs are filtering through for the Titans; however, this is their first actual test against a top tier team who will be hungry for the win.
The Raiders were undone last week due to the absence of most of their bench players early in the game. In the first half, the Raiders were a dominating outfit who looked no chance of losing. As the game went on, fatigue and attrition set in, allowing the Warriors to pick them apart. Like me, I’m sure a lot of you have seen the Ricky Stuart post-match interview, and we can be sure he’s going to bring that explosiveness out through his team this week.
The Titans are also affected by the Covid outbreak in Queensland, and this match has been moved to Sydney. What was going to be a tough match for them gives them a challenging feat to overcome. One bright spot on this side is AJ Brimson, who showed some signs of what he was doing at the back of last season. He looks to be one of the few Titans that get a favourable matchup this week against a dominating defensive team.
The Raiders will be out for blood this week, led by playmaker Jack Wighton. Wighton has a special knack for getting across the line against the Titans, securing two doubles in his last two matches against them. Wighton also returned to try-scoring form the previous week and looked like the best player on the park in the first half.
Sebastian Kris is one of my favourite players, with the skill, ability and size of a forward playing in the centres. Kris once again plays on the right side of the field as he did last week and gets to attack the Titans’ defensively weaker left side. Kris also has a terrific record of scoring the matches first try. He has already had one this season and gone very close in both of his other games (one disallowed, one, inches short).
SGM; Jack Wighton Try, Sebastian Kris Try, Raiders -4.5. $10.00
Dragons @ Knights
Sunday 4th April
Game Breakdown
I’ve been high on the Dragons this season, where most people had written them off as the wooden spoon incumbents. Unfortunately, I will be joining the masses this week and changing my tune on them, primarily due to the Ben Hunt injury. Hunt has carried this team over the first three weeks of the season, and I don’t like their chances without him.
The Knights showed their true colours again last week, going down in a deserved loss against the previously winless West Tigers. The Knights capitulated with errors, particularly under the high ball where Shibisaki would have struggled to catch Covid in America. The forwards continue to carry this team. It won’t be long until they start facing quality opposition who can shut down their forward line, effectively disabling the Knights attack.
Corey Norman is going to have to be on his A-game this week to have any chance of keeping the Dragons momentum going. Norman was excellent on his feet last week and brought Tariq Sims back into the game. He had previously been an afterthought this season. The link between Norman and Cody Ramsey looked great last week and will need to be prevalent once again to unleash the young speedster.
Zac Lomax grabbed a double last week and is always a threat on the field’s right side. Lomax has an excellent record against the Knights and three tries in his previous two matches against them. However, it may be wise to give it a week to see how he goes with Adam Clune inside him instead of Hunt.
The Knights have looked a lot stronger down the left side of the field this season; however, that didn’t match up last week without Bradman Best. Best’s absence left a gaping hole in both attack and defence in which the Knights don’t have anyone that can patch. With Best out again this week, I struggle to see where the Knights will get their points from as they cant rely on their inept right-side attack. The Dragons have conceded three tries to left-wingers so Hymel Hunt could get over, but they would have a field day on that side if Best were present.
A huge key for the Knights this week will be getting under the high ball. The Knights were shocking at fielding the high ball last week and will need to rectify this to avoid another defeat. Shibasaki is moving into the centre, so you shouldn’t have to deal with as many bombs, but you can be sure Norman will pick him out whenever he can.
Best Bet; Total Points Under 44.5. $1.90
Warriors @ Roosters
Sunday 4th April
Game Breakdown
The Warriors came back from the depths of a first-half capitulation last week to steal an unlikely win over one of the competition’s heavyweights. You may call it controversial; you may say the Raiders were unlucky with an almost empty bench early on. A win is a win, and the Warriors need every point they can earn, borrow or scalp.
The Roosters had a first-half capitulation of their own against the Rabbitohs. This happened before the injury bug struck them down. Luke Keary and Lindsay Collins were the most prominent names affected by the Roosters injury woes, and neither will suit up this week. This brings Sam Walker into the team to make his debut and get a trial by fire against a Warriors team that will target the young half.
The Roosters are expected to name Joey Manu in the halves to partner Walker and move Ikuvalu on to the right-wing. This shakeup makes this game very much a wait and watch rather than a strong betting game. If you were to go after any of the Roosters try-scorers, I would look towards the left edge. Daniel Tupou has a great chance to get off the mark against a poor Warriors right defence. James Tedesco has scored the Roosters first try in all three matches so far this season.
The Warriors have struggled to score out wide so far this season. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck looked incredible last week and should continue that form as he faces off against his former club.
SGM; James Tedesco 1st Roosters Try, Total Points Under 42.5. $10.75
Eels @ West Tigers
Sunday 28th March
Game Breakdown
The Eels got let off the hook last week as they got to face a depleted Sharks unit that had run out of bench players by halftime. This week they get to meet a weaker forward pack, but a team that will be on a high after cracking their first win of the season last weekend.
The Tigers will be pleased with the performance they put in last week and will be looking to continue that form through this game as well. The Tigers did many things right against the Knights, although they still have a long way to become relevant again.
The Eels have been terrific scoring tries down the fringes so far this season, with Maika Sivo and Blake Fergusson having three tries to their names this season. However, with only one try, Clint Gutherson, even though he has been heavily involved in the action. This is an excellent game for Gutho to increase his try tally as he’s up against a team that has leaked a try to the fullback position in every game this season.
Tommy Talau got onto the score sheet last week and also has three tries in his previous two matches against the Eels. Talau has looked better in each game this season and has won the left centre job on merit over the unfit Joey Leilua.
This game is historically a high scoring match, and both teams have shown this season that they are capable of putting points on the board when needed. The Tigers will feed off their form from last week and be good for a few tries this week as everything looks like it is starting to click.
Best Bet; Total Points Over 42.5. $1.90
