NFL Futures

Comeback Player of the Year

Christian McCaffrey

After an injury-riddled season, we finally get to see a healthy Christian McCaffrey again, and anyone who thinks he won't be back to his best is gravely mistaken. McCaffrey is rightly the best running back in the League and is in line to tackle a heavy workload this season. Last season McCaffrey was limited to only three games, but he still managed to score six touchdowns and averaged over 120 yards per game, after a season, he was named 1st team All-Pro with 19 touchdowns and almost 2400 all-purpose yards. Chubba Hubbard is behind McCaffrey on the depth chart, and it will be unlikely that he will take meaningful snaps away from McCaffrey in his rookie season. McCaffrey will be a popular vote in the CPOY vote as he will always be on the field, from 1st to 4th down, and the most dangerous weapon that Sam Darnold (or PJ Walker) has. McCaffrey is already a fan favourite and a favourite of the associated press. Other possibilities for this award include Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow and Nick Bosa. Prescott has lofty expectations to reach, and it will be questionable to see how he reacts when he doesn't have an elite offensive line to protect him, he is also priced too short. Burrow will also be playing behind an inferior offensive line with a schedule of ferocious defensive lines to contend with. Bosa, whom I like this season, I can see playing more of a role in the DPOY race if he returns with a bang. This award has only gone to 1 defensive player since 2007.

Season Rushing Leader

Dalvin Cook

Dalvin Cook is one of the premier running backs in the NFL and is poised to continue his dominance in the League. Last season Cook finished 2nd in the rushing race, far off the pace of champion Derrick Henry, but almost 400 yards better than 3rd place. However, when we dive into the stats, we see that Henry had a mammoth 378 carries compared to Cooks 312. There are plenty of signs that point to Cook having a better season and Henry regressing, beginning with the Vikings improved defence. Last season, the Vikings had one of the worst defensive units in the League and increased that tenfold. I believe this unit will make the most significant jump from last season, with injured stars returning, savvy free-agent pickups and a strong draft of underrated prospects. This will ensure that the Vikings aren't playing from behind for the majority of the season like they were last season, increasing Cook's carries. Last season the Vikings started with a pass-heavy attack and failed until they returned to the run game. This season the Vikings play their opening three games against teams with poor run-stopping units, and Mike Zimmer will employ, an if it isn't broke, don't fix it attitude to their streaking run game. The Titans did everything they could in the latter parts of the season to get Henry to 2000 rush yards and succeeded due to their already good season record. This year the Titans schedule predicts to be more demanding, and they will face some solid defensive units (although not in their division). Henry's workload will need to be managed this season, especially with the extra game to play as it is proven time and time again, running backs who take heavy workloads season after season show a faster decline in their careers. My only reservation about Dalvin Cook is his injury history, so that I will be taking a slightly smaller play on this prop.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Micah Parsons

Micah Parsons has come into the Dallas Cowboys locker room and already rocked the boat. Parsons was the number 12 pick in this year's draft out of Penn State and one of my favourite defensive prospects this season. On initial thought, I saw the Dallas Cowboys drafting him as a backup plan if they didn't resign young sensation Leighton Vander-Esch. In reality, Parsons has taken Vander-Esch's job and also jumped the highly paid Jaylon Smith in the depth chart. Parsons is a do it all linebacker who can play multiple standing positions and be on the field for every down. Parsons 3rd down ability will be what seals him this award as he will be employed as a 3rd down pass rusher, increasing his popularity among the associated press. I can see Parsons ending the season with 3+ sacks, 2+ interceptions and 100+ tackles. When you combine this stat line with the headlines he will likely receive from being on the "Americas" team, you have a player that will be at the top of the DROY list come to the end of the season.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Mac Jones

This is a stricter award to call as several promising prospects could all throw their hats in the ring. Mac Jones has won the starting job at the Patriots, and it may be a case that just making the playoffs with a stacked roster could win him this award. The other potential players are; Trevor Lawrence, Najee Harris and Kyle Pitts. Compared to the other three players on this list Jones and the Patriots have one huge advantage, an offensive line. The Patriots offensive line will make Jones look better than he is and bring the nice stat line protected quarterbacks to get along with him. Many people will tell you that the Patriots have poor weapons for Jones to utilize. However, this is far from the truth as rookie quarterbacks thrive in a dink and dunk scheme with pass-catching solid tight ends and backfields that can become receiving threats. This is precisely how the Patriots are set up, with newcomers Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith forming the best tight end tandem in the League. The Patriots also have James White, one of the best 3rd down running backs in the business. Jones may not end the season with 4000 passing yards, but I expect him to have a strong QBR due to a high pass completion % and 24+ touchdowns. The expectations for Jones will be high, but I believe he can meet these and then some.

Division Winner Multi

I have put together many likely division winners that we can follow throughout the season and make extra bank before playoffs.

Tennessee Titans - had a great season last year, and I can't quite see them having the same level of success this time as teams begin to work out their weaknesses. HOWEVER, the rest of the AFC South has got much worse this season, and the Titans will almost win this division by default. The Jaguars and Texans don't have the roster strength to compete with the Titans, and it is only the Indianapolis Colts pose any hint of a challenge. The Colts most vital asset is their offensive line which will help Jonathan Taylor to have a good year. Unfortunately, Carson Wentz is not and never will be the answer. Wentz injury history is even scarier when you consider they have no one behind him who is anywhere near capable of competing in the NFL. The Colts defence is also slightly overrated, and they have multiple questions in their secondary. Watch the Titans sew this division title up with a week or 2 to go.

San Francisco 49ers - Kyle Shanahan's pure coaching style sees the 49ers past their rivals in a much-hyped division. The 49ers had a down season last year as they were completely dismantled by injuries at every position on the field. This year they will be back with an embarrassment of riches at most critical positions. Number 3 overall pick Trey Lance will likely sit out at least the first half of the season, coming in only as a gadget player while he learns the playbook. This will be a run-first team that will lean on their stout defence to win games, similar to the 2019 49ers. Nick Bosa is back, and his return can't be understated as I expect him to be fully in the Defensive Player of the Year race. Right now, there are slight question marks over cornerback, but Richard Sherman could slot straight back into this team after week 1 when his salary will not be fully guaranteed (If they choose to go down that route). This is a tough division, with all three other groups expecting to be competitive but with more question marks surrounding their rosters.

Tampa Bay Bucs - Tom Brady. Yeah, the NFC South will be a bit of a dumpster fire outside of the Bucs, and I expect them to walk away with the division quite comfortably. The Saints have gotten worse on offence, with Alvin Kamara and the offensive line the only ones to be excited for. On defence, their front seven has taken a big hit losing both starters and depth pieces. The Falcons are a complete roster overhaul from being competitive, and the Panthers are in the early days of their makeover. Tom Brady.

Kansas City Chiefs - Similarly to the Bucs, last years runner up Chiefs side sits in a cosy division right now. Unlike the Bucs, however, the AFC West is showing improvements outside of the Raiders. The Broncos defence projects to be one of the best in the NFL, and the Chargers are getting much buzz from part-time fans who don't know what an offensive line does. I'm just kidding; it will be their ageing overrated defence that sinks the Chargers season. The Chiefs rebuilt their offensive line in one offseason, which is a remarkable feat considering their high-priced players on the roster. Andy Reid is a terrific coach and will walk this team into a home playoff game.

**Division Winner Multi - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 8.5, Best Book - Sportsbet**

Caveman’s NFL Futures 2021