Caveman’s Monday Madness Week 16

28th December 2020

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

Matchup Basics

Matchup Insight 

Monday night football comes to us from Foxborough this week in a match that may help to determine seeding in the AFC playoff picture. Both of these teams have a lot to play for, the Bills could look to push into the number 2 seed and take home playoff matches up to the conference championships and the Patriots have their all-important pride at stake. In the first bout between these teams, it was a late Cam Newton fumble that cost them victory now playing back in Boston the Patriots will want to do everything they can to right that mistake. Whichever way we look at this game it’s going to be a hard-fought physical contest with more than its fair share of big hits. 

The Patriots have one of the longest injury reports in the NFL right now and it’s crippling both their offense and defense. The offensive line could be without four starters which is a scary thought for Cam Newton who has suffered from being indecisive this year and holding onto the ball for too long in the pocket. The running game is one of the bright spots moving forward for this Patriots side and will be the focal point to build around for next year as a huge offensive makeover should be about to take place. Cam Newton has amassed 4 passing touchdowns in the Patriot’s last 11 games and will struggle to build on that against a defense that has been improving every week. The only positive you can throw out there for this once-proud unit is the allure of playing at home as an underdog which still holds a strong record against traveling teams.

The Patriots defense has performed about as well as we thought it would this season even with all of the holdouts and injuries. Stephon Gilmour has been lost for the season although this has been one of his worst seasons since his rookie year in Buffalo. Outside of the starting safeties, almost every other defensive starter for the Patriots is out or questionable which will make it very difficult to bet on this team. The pass rush has still been able to create pressure which has allowed JC Jackson to have a breakout year in the secondary as errant throws are as easy to pick off like cotton candy off a stick for him. This team has allowed less than 200 passing yards in 3 of their last 4 games but a lot of these questionable players will have to upgrade by game time for this streak to continue.

The Bills offense has been on fire this season, Josh Allen has successfully broken out into the 2nd tier of quarterbacks after showing promise only as a game manager in his first few seasons. The run game has still been a disappointment for the Bills this season and they will have to fix this heading into the playoffs, but the Patriots have allowed 4.6 rushing yards per attempt this season so the time to get this right is now. On the receiving front, Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley have shown they are one of the best-receiving duos in the league. Beasley especially has been amazing in away fixtures, recording 100+ receiving yards in each of his last 4 away fixtures. If the Patriots cornerbacks cant all suit up this week these 2 will be having a field day and showing the play-making ability they can bring into the playoffs.

Both the Bills offense and defense have been very lucky this season on the injury front maintaining 9 offensive starters and producing a full 11 starters on defense entering Week 16. These defensive starters remaining healthy is crucial as we enter the playoffs with the old adage of defenses win championships holding true. With all the Patriot’s inconsistencies on offense, this Bills defense looks primed to have yet another great day this week. In the last 4 games, the Bills have only allowed 20 or more points once in their bend but don’t break defense. Like the Patriots, however, they are allowing 4.6 yards per carry on the ground and this is their only exploitable weakness the Patriots could take advantage of. 

Player props to follow in this game include, Cole Beasley over 51.5 receiving yards in a match that he will want to get some revenge after being held to only 2 targets in the first match. Stefon Diggs receiving number is very high at 83.5 but at $1.91 to score a touchdown shows slightly more value. Zach Moss has taken over as the lead back for Buffalo taking twice as many carries as Devin Singletary over the last 2 weeks so over 44.5 rushing yards is exploitable against this poor run defense. For the Patriots I really like the match-up for Jakobi Meyers in the slot but unfortunately, I cant bet on a Patriots receiver sober with the current quarterback situation. Cam Newton has thrown the ball for 5 touchdowns and 10 interceptions this season so $1.83 or more for a Cam pick shows value. James White has been the picture of inconsistency this season but has still been playing on around 40-50% of snaps generally higher in losing efforts so over 21.5 receiving yards shows value predicting that the Patriots are going to be behind for most of the day.

The Last Word

It has been a hard year full of slow starts for the Patriots who are yet to score a first quarter point at home this season and generally slow to come out of the gates. I will be looking at under 47.5 total points as the Patriots generally keep home games to low scoring affairs even when they are banged up. I will take a lean to the Bills -7 as ist the only way you can realistically bet in this game but I probably can’t get to the window to bet it with Bill Belichick scheming as a home underdog.