Caveman’s Monday Madness Week 14

14th December 2020

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns

Matchup Basics

Matchup Insight 

It was a tough Sunday in the NFL yesterday as I had my second losing week of the season and first since week 5. The 4th quarters were especially painful as games that were going nicely capitulated late with the 3 games I was playing the over combining for 6 4th quarter points. The key though is not to dwell on the losses but to move onto the wins as this ebb and flow is all part of betting. As I was repeating over and over on the podcast, special teams became vital at this stage of the season. We saw some shocking kicking, some big returns, and some huge penalties that turned wins into losses and put several team’s seasons on life support. Tonight we get another huge divisional this time from the AFC North with the Browns hosting the Ravens. The Ravens have won 21 of their past 25 games against the Browns including a 32 point thrashing at the start of the season. The Browns have improved 10 fold since that game and the Ravens have been collapsing of late to set up a crucial showdown in the AFC playoff picture. The Ravens, Browns, Dolphins, and an AFC South team are all fighting it out for 3 wildcard spots and if the Ravens lose here they may be eliminating themselves from the hunt.

Offensively the Ravens have been a huge disappointment this year with reigning MVP Lamar Jackson looking like a shadow of the player he was last season. The passing game is lacking a true leader and big target with Dez Bryant coming into the fold too late to help transform this group. The run game has been brilliant though with Dobbins, Edwards, and Jackson combining to give 3 very different style of running backs which is hard to prep for and easy to create mismatches. Mark Andrews is back this week and will be a vital piece of this puzzle especially in the red zone. The Browns have allowed 9 touchdowns to tight ends this season and Andrews is Lamar’s favorite target when the Ravens get close.

The Browns offense is on cloud 9 right now after a statement win last week in Tennessee. Baker Mayfield was outstanding and showed all the potential he has when the weather isn’t playing against him. Unfortunately, I think the Weather goes against the Browns once again in this one with temperatures expected to be below 0 celsius and wind gusts climbing up to 30 MPH. Baker has been playing as a great game manager over the past 6 weeks and hasn’t thrown an interception since week 8. Baker isn’t going to light the house up on the score sheet instead he prefers to sit back behind the best offensive line in football and keep the game ticking over. Jarvis Landry is starting to get into playoff form but unfortunately for him, he comes up against a tough matchup in Marlon Humphrey this week. Nick Chubb has been incredible this season and would be challenging Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook for the rushing title if he hadn’t got injured. In Chubbs 4 games since returning from injury, he has 464 yards and 3tds on the ground.

The Ravens defense has been great in the passing game this season. They have allowed the 4th fewest yards and touchdowns to opposition QBs and have sacked the QB 28 times as the heaviest blitz team in the league. This heavy blitz package is going to be put to the test this week against an offensive line that has only allowed Mayfield to be sacked 17 times so far this season. The run defense for the Ravens started the season well but is starting to fall apart as of late. In the last 7 games, the Ravens have allowed over 100 yards on the ground to every team not named the Steelers. This does not bode well going up against one of the best rushing units in the league. 

The Browns this season have been brutal against the pass but tough against the run. Against wide receivers, the Browns have given up over 2100 yards and 15 touchdowns as they continue to fall flat on the outside. The Browns have also been poor against tight ends so Lamar should get to the connection between him and Andrews early and often. Blocking the run has been a priority for the Browns this season and have allowed the 5th fewest rushing yards. The Browns pass rush has been a mixed bag this season and depends completely on Oliver Vernon and Myles Garrett being fit and healthy. When these two guys are singing they are the best duo in the NFL at creating pressure on the quarterback and will have a great day against the Ravens backup offensive lineman.

Player props in this game, I like Mark Andrews to go over 44.5 receiving yards in his return to action. I also like Myles Boykin over 10.5 receiving yards with Dez out as I love taking the 1 catch numbers in games where the QB will be looking for multiple receivers. I expect this game to be played predominantly on the ground but with 3 different runners, it’s hard to nail down which Raven will get the most carries. In this situation, I like to go for the guy with the lowest number which is Gus Edwards over 29.5 rushing yards although I see value in the over for Dobbins and Jackson as well. Nick Chubb’s total of 79.5 rushing yards does seem a little low for me given his pedigree but I prefer his rushing attempts at over 17.5, a number he has gone over in 6/7 non-injury-related games. With the wind and the cold, there is another type of prop I like to take in these situations and that’s the longest pass prop. I like Lamar Jackson under 32.5 and Baker Mayfield under 34.5 for their longest passes of the day.

The Last Word

This is the same situation as last week where I think the Browns have the better matchup on paper but I just can’t back them because they are the Browns and I’m not ready to be a believer yet. What this does mean though is I will definitely not be backing the Ravens in this one as the Browns have the opportunity once again to show that they are for real, even if it is a make or break game for the Ravens. With the news of the poor weather, the total has come in from 47.5 to 45.5 a number in which I still like to go under but a bit of the value has gone. Personally, I can’t wait for this weekend to be over so I can write it off and move on to cashing in big on my bounce-back plays next week.