Caveman’s Monday Madness Week 12
30th November 2020
Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles
Matchup Insight
The Seahawks vs the Eagles put one of the strongest offenses with an MVP candidate under center vs one of the worst offenses I’ve had the displeasure to watch with a quarterback that is worse than Nick Foles. Defensively the Eagles are underrated and have been strong at all levels while the Seahawks have a record-setting bad pass defense but a strong run-stopping unit. The winner of this game will move to the top of their division and be in a stronger spot to make the playoffs.
Russel Wilson has been playing lights out this season, in Wilson’s first 5 games he started with a 19-3 TD to INT rating but this has dropped to an 11 to 7 ratio in the last 5 games. This low streak has also included the Seahawks’ 3 losses this season and coincides with Chris Carson’s injury and the Seahawk’s poor run game. With Carson back, this week opposing teams will have to keep the run game in check as well as the passing game which will open up the play-action passes and give Russ more lanes to take off on his feet. The Seahawk’s top 2 wide receivers this season have been absolutely lights out with DK Metcalf having an incredible season. It’s Tyler Lockett I expect to have a big game this week however as he gets a much better match-up vs Nickell Robey-Coleman. Metcalf, unfortunately, has to match up against Darius Slay who has been playing at a pro bowl level this season.
The Eagles offense has been brutal this year, Carson Wentz has been worse than Kendall Hinton and the offensive line has been abysmal. Carson Wentz is leading the league with 14 interceptions, 10 fumbles, and 40 sacks. Wentz is also the 32nd worst QB in completion rate with only a 58.4%. Luckily for the Eagles there looks to be a move to Jalen Hurts in the future, he has taken a higher percentage of the first-team reps in practice this week and is touted to have a much bigger role in the offense this week. Hurts has been limited to only 2 passes this year but has been great when playing as the gadget guy. Myles Sanders has looked fantastic when healthy this season and will have a huge role in this match especially in the passing game.
The Seattle defense has been on a historic pace this season with horrific pass defense and no pass rush to speak of. Jamal Adams looks to be a huge bust due to the price that was paid for him with only some run-stopping ability to speak of in exchange for their 2 first and their third-round picks. The Seattle run defense has been strong this year to date only allowing the 4th least rushing yards. As few rushing yards as they have allowed the Seahawks have given up 15 rushing touchdowns which are the 3rd most in the NFL. Seattle has been poor defending teams in the red zone giving up 70% touchdowns when opposing teams get into the red zone.
The Eagles defense has been a lot stronger than their offense so far this season led by a dominating defensive line, back-breaking pass rush, and solid secondary. Fletcher Cox has been incredible this season and will be a sure thing pro bowler. The Eagles have made 34 sacks already this season even though they have blitzed on less than a quarter of quarterback dropbacks, this allows them to hold an extra player in coverage so they don’t give up as many big plays. One area that the Eagles have been poor in has been stopping the Quarterbacks on their feet allowing the 2nd most rushing yards to signal-callers.
Player Props to follow this week include both running backs and both quarterbacks on the ground. Chris Carson over 53.5 rushing yards looks the best of the value followed by Russel Wilson over 28.5 rushing yards. Although there is value in Miles Sanders over 62.5 rushing yards I prefer the over 18.5 receiving yards. If you can find any Jalen Hurts rushing props the over will be terrific value. Tyler Lockett gets a better matchup than DK Metcalf this week so I would prefer over 74.5 receiving yards for Lockett but him scoring a touchdown may have slightly more value. Because of Wentz’s recent form and the fact of Hurts taking reps in training I can see great value in Carson Wentz to throw for under 237.5 passing yards.
The Last Word
The Seahawks have won 8 of the last 9 games in this series including going 6-0 in the Pete Carrol era. Both of these teams have the ability to be prolific point scorers and the Eagles have scored more points in the tougher matches than they have against weaker competition, proving they play to their opponent’s skill level. For this, I am leaning to the over 48.5 but I’m not overly excited about it as we are looking at a wet game. The Eagles +6.5 has slightly more value as the poor Seahawks defense usually allows opposing teams to stay in games. This will be an exciting game to watch and it will be great to see what Jalen Hurts can do.
