Caveman’s Monday Madness Week 11
23rd November 2020
Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matchup Basics
Matchup Insight
We have a battle of defensive powerhouses tonight jousting it out to stay relevant in the close NFC playoff race. The Monday night game this week sees the hulk himself Aaron Donald go 4 quarters with the G.O.A.T Tom Brady in a battle that will clear the waters a little in this murky playoff race. Are the Bucs a legit title contender? Are the Rams more than just a good defense? Can we really sit through 3 hours of Steve Levy calling this game? The answers to these are a resounding yes yes no and a bonus yes for watching 2 top tier coaches who will have to come up with some colorful playcalling as running the ball will prove very difficult. It’s Monday night football grab a beer layout your bet tickets and enjoy this vital NFC showdown.
The Tampa Bay offense has been a huge hit or miss this season and it revolves around which version of Tom Brady we’re going to see. If we see the Brady after a loss where he’s looked strong found his open receivers and only given up 1 sack and 1 int then were in for a treat, but if we see the Brady in those losses where he’s taken 3 sacks per game, thrown 5 interceptions and completely missed open receivers then Tampa is in for a long night. The Buccaneers have played against 3 elite defenses so far this season, the Saints twice and the Bears all 3 of these games resulted in losses. Apart from the 2 games vs the porus Panthers’ run defense the Bucs committee running approach has been average at best and they looked much better when Ronald Jones was the lead back and had a defined role. The receivers are one of the best groups we’ve seen together this century but they get difficult matchups this week vs an amazing Rams secondary. Mike Evans will draw Ramsey island while Antonio Brown will have to go toe to toe with breakout star Darious Williams who has 4 interceptions already and looking fantastic in coverage. The only plus matchup for Tom Brady and co this week will be to target Chris Godwin in the slot who has looked great when healthy hauling in 34 of his 41 targets so far this season.
The Rams offense has also been a mixed bag this season going with a true committee approach at running back where any of their 3 runners could handle the ball and expanding their offense to incorporate more receivers in an equal target share system. Losing Andrew Whitworth will be huge for this Rams offense as Goff is one of the best passers in the NFL when protected but struggles worse than Josh Gordon passing a drug test when rushed. If Goff can get the ball out quickly which he will have to do he will be looking to target Cooper Kupp out of the slot who averages over 8 targets per game and has the better match-up this week. Josh Reynolds has been on fire recently with an increased workload playing on 80% of snaps in the last 4 weeks compared to 65% previously. Goff could look to target one of his tight ends in the red zone as the Bucs have given up 4 touchdowns to tight ends in the last 4 weeks.
Defensively both of these teams are in the top 5 in almost every statistical category, including yards allowed, points allowed and first downs allowed. The Buccaneers have the highest blitz rate however rushing the passer on 42% of quarterback dropbacks so Goff will need to be able to get the ball out fast in order to succeed. The Rams Blitz a lot less but still have success because of their elite talent and size on the defensive line, this also allows them to keep an extra man in coverage making it harder for the quarterback to find the open receiver. In coverage, the Rams have been near perfect giving up few big plays and only a 64% completion rate. The Bucs are allowing over 68% completions and have been susceptible to big plays all season. These 2 defenses have both been solid at turning teams away in the endzone and are the top 2 teams in the league averaging under 27 yards per drive (shorter than a basketball court).
Player props to keep an eye on in this one include Cooper Kupp over 57.5 receiving yards and over 5.5 receptions. Kupp should see a lot of targets as Goff will need to get the ball out of his hands quickly. Mike Evans under 55.5 receiving yards as he will be lining up against Jalen Ramsey for most of the night which is a bad matchup for anyone. I would also be looking at Chris Godwin over 61.5 receiving yards as the outside receivers will have their hands full with these strong cornerbacks so Brady should be looking inside more often. Tom Brady to throw for under 293.5 passing yards also looks good as the Rams secondary loves keeping QBs honest.
The Last Word
This looks to be a great defensive battle between these 2 playoff contenders. I am leaning to the under 48.5 points in this game as we have 2 elite defenses playing against 2 offenses that have shown inconsistency all season. I am also leaning towards the Rams +4.5 points as I see them having a slightly better matchup against the Bucs secondary. In the 3 games, the Bucs have lost this season they have allowed 3 sacks in each, and without Ali Marpet in this one to guard the interior I can see this happening again. Tom Brady is old he is tired and his arm is looking weaker and weaker each week, the fact that the Bucs have not yet had their bye week also turns me off this team as it is definitely starting to show that Brady needs a break especially with no offseason where he will be missing some of his conditioning. The Rams are only 1 game removed from their bye so will be rested and healthy with this game circled on their calendar.
