Caveman’s Monday Madness November 3rd

Week 8 Monday Night Football

2nd November 2020

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants

Matchup Basics

Matchup Insight

Monday night football is back this week with two strong defenses doing battle on the field that has caused many injuries so far this season. These two teams are led by their defenses with the game plan to slow the opposition down and let the offence squeak its way to victory. The offences, however, are contrasting groups with Tampa Bay flying high with the G.O.A.T, and New York struggling to find meaningful production with a slow-moving unit. The Bucs have found their way past teams in away games going 4-1 80% against the spread as a way favorites since Bruce Arians took over the coaching. The Giants, however, have not had so much luck when they have been the underdog, going 1-12 7% against the spread as a home underdog since 2018.

The Tampa Bay offence has lost receiver Chris Godwin for the next few weeks. Godwin has already missed 3 games so far this season, during these games, Brady has targeted Mike Evans a lot more than when Godwin has been in the lineup. Brady has also used the absence of Godwin to target his tight ends and running backs more, in particular, his back up Tight Ends so keep an eye on Cameron Brate and Tanner Hudson who could be in line for an uptick in targets. The Bucs run game has flourished over the past few weeks with Arians finally having a healthy Leonard Fournette meaning he can go with the hot hand approach, this will be all the more vital with the Giants having a top 10 run defense allowing over 100 yards on the ground only once at home this season. 

The Giants offence, however, has struggled mightily this season with last week vs the Eagles being the first time they have recorded over 300 scrimmage yards. The turnovers have been what has killed the Giants this season as they have been able to keep games close being beaten by more than 10 points only once, however they have given up a turnover every game this season. The Giants offence has given up turnovers in 27 of their last 29 games with the 2 games they didn't give the ball away from both going to overtime. The run game on paper has been picking up nicely for the Giants gaining over 100 yards in 3 of their last 4 games however they will be going against the best run-stopping unit in the NFL and Daniel Jones has scrambled for over 200 yards in this time.

Defensively the Buccaneers have been brilliant this season against the run and more than held up in coverage, allowing the fewest yards to opposing teams in the league. They have blitzed the QB on over 40% of plays and recorded 25 sacks during this time and although their secondary isn't as strong as their front 7, they have still come away with 9 interceptions. This seems like bad news for Daniel Jones who struggles when being pressured and has been sacked 20 times this season already (5th most in the league). The Giants defense has held up admirably given the amount of time they have had to be out on the field. They do have weaknesses in their secondary which Tom Brady will look to exploit but they have been able to slow teams down from putting a lot of points up allowing 26 points or less in 5 of 7 games. 

When looking at player props in this one we do have to take the weather into account. We have a chance of rain but the biggest factors are going to be the wind and temperature with gusts of over 30 mph expected and a temperature of only 1-degree Celsius. Daniel Jones under 222.5 passing yards seems likely in this weather and the fact he has only passed this total once this season(week 1), while him getting over 25.5 rush yards is a good one to take as he will be scrambling to dodge this pass rush. Darius Slayton under 47.5 yards seems a great value play with Sterling Shepard back in the line up he will return to his natural position of deep threat which the wind should all but shut down. The Buccaneers defense has given up an average of 50 yards per game to opposition receiving backs, so Wayne Gallman over 14.5 receiving yards looks a nice play as he got 5 targets last time out. For the Buccaneers, Tom Brady going under 261.5 passing yards looks good again because of the wind and cold. I also like Brady to throw an interception @2.25 as he has in 3 of 7 games so far this year.

The Last Word

With the Saints and Panthers on deck for the Bucs, this could be a low week for them wanting to get the win and rest their guys for the big divisional clashes ahead. 13 points is a lot of points to give on the road especially to a team that is still in their divisional race with a win. I lean to a healthier giants team to get the back door cover here but I won't be racing to put a lot of money on it. I will be leaning to the under 45.5 in this 1 as I think the bookmakers have it a couple of points too high due to recent results. The Bucs offence has been flying but the cold temperature and high winds should do their part to keeping a low scoring affair.