Caveman’s Festive Friday Football Christmas Special
25th December 2020
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
Matchup Basics
Matchup Insight
After a tumultuous 2020, we are almost at the end which sadly means there are only 2 weeks of the NFL regular season remaining. On a positive note Christmas, this year is going to be extra special with Christmas day football between the Vikings and Saints. The Vikings have recorded 2 big playoff wins over the Saints in the last few years and would love to make it 3 primetime showings in a row. The Saints with Drew Brees back in the fold will be looking to get their season back on track after back to back losses and will be eyeing up a poor Minnesota defense in order to get this done. However, this game turns out the most important thing happening this Friday is football.
The Viking’s offense has been a nice surprise this season after losing talisman Stefon Diggs in the offseason. Kirk Cousins as he always does, started slow but has pulled his finger out and now looks like a league-average quarterback. Dalvin Cook has put together a brilliant season with 1484 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground and 8 big 100 yard games on the season. Cook has shown he is deserving of the contract extension he signed and will continue to light up the stat sheets as long as he stays healthy. Rookie Justin Jefferson has been outstanding on his way to compiling one of the best seasons for a rookie receiver since Odell Beckham Jr. Irv Smith has been amazing when healthy from the tight end position and has most likely put Kyle Rudolph out of a job next season. The only knock you can put on this offense is their offensive line which for the 278th year in a row has been terrible. The middle of the line has been especially bad allowing inside pressure more than any other team in the NFC. The Vikings have gone 1-7 in games where Kirk Cousins has been pressured on 40% or more of his dropbacks and with the multi-headed pass-rushing attack the Saints have this record looks to be extended on Christmas.
The Saints had no idea how much they missed Drew Brees until he was gone. Taysom Hill provided a positive result in the win/loss column but I doubt that’s enough to inspire confidence that he may be an NFL starting quarterback. Sean Payton did the right thing in seeing what he had in Taysom Hill, unfortunately, the result was that he is the best gadget guy in the NFL and not starting QB material. Drew Brees looked shaky at best last week and is definitely not fully healed after breaking half his ribs and puncturing his lung. Brees will be taking the rest of the season easy relying on the run game a lot more which should be easy enough this week after the Bears showed how it’s done last week. Latavious Murray is often the forgotten man in this offense but the bigger back should hold a pivotal role in this one. The wide receivers for New Orleans have not been good at all this season. Micheal Thomas has been shut down once again for the remainder of the season which leaves the burden of the top wideout on Emmanuel Sanders who in that role for most of the season has only accumulated 580 yards and 4 touchdowns. Luckily for the Saints, they go up against a young Vikings secondary who have shown lapses in coverage although they have been slowly stringing better performances together lately. Alvin Kamara leads this team in; rushing yards, receiving yards, touchdowns, big gains, first downs and is the only player week in and week out you can call any sort of reliable.
The Vikings defense started the season as one of the worst units in all of football, now there only bottom 10 which has been a huge improvement for such a young group. Cameron Dantzler has been the best rookie cornerback in the league so far this season and Jeff Gladney has taken huge strides as a slotback. If there’s anything to take away from this secondary it’s that they are all going to improve considerably in year 2 after they have a full offseason to get to know the system. The defensive line has been where the problems lie for the Vikings, they struggle to get penetration and their pass rush is uncharacteristically bad for this team. The pass rusher with the most sacks on this team is Yannick Ngakoue who was traded away in week 6. Ngakoue could end up leading the Ravens in sacks as well. Stopping the run has been an impossible feat for this Vikings defense this season, they haven’t allowed a team less than 100 rushing yards since week 10 and have only allowed less than 100 twice all season.
The Saints defense on the other hand has been one of the best in the league in all areas of the game. They are allowing less than 3.8 yards per carry on the ground, have not allowed 3000 passing yards yet this season, have accumulated 40 sacks, and are the least penalized defense in the NFL. This defense is what has kept them in a lot of games this season and will continue to do so well into the playoffs. As we know when we get to this time of year defense is key and can carry a poor offense right through the playoffs. This defense matches up against the Vikings very well with top tier talent lining up across from all of Minnesota’s offensive weapons. Look for David Onyemata to create pressure up the middle and Demario Davis to be focused solely on slowing down Dalvin Cook.
In a hard-fought Christmas day matchup, there’s not a tonne of player props I can get behind. For the Vikings, Justin Jefferson will once again be cousins deep threat so over 65.5 receiving yards looks good but I don’t love it. Adam Thelin over 4.5 receptions at plus money shows slightly better value than Jefferson this week. For the Saints, I would be looking more towards the running backs than the banged-up receivers. Alvin Kamara to go over 44.5 receiving yards looks great against a Vikings team with injured run stoppers, but I am more of a fan of Kamara’s total yards over 108.5 as he should see a healthy amount of work in the ground game as well. Latavius Murray to go over 33.5 rushing yards is also a nice number as they should be running the ball down the Viking’s throats early and often especially with a banged-up Drew Brees.
The Last Word
The only reason ill be getting out of bed on Christmas day this year will be to watch the Vikings play. The spread is tough to gauge as both teams will be looking to run first and not blow the other team out. I lean towards the Vikings +7 as I believe it’s just a bit too high with a still not 100% Drew Brees. I wouldn’t be surprised however if the Saints did cover as they will be out for revenge after the Vikings have beaten them 3 of the last 4 times including both playoff games. With the way the Vikings secondary is coming along and the Saint’s lack of receiver health, I’m going for the under 51.5 total points in this game. I cant see the Vikings doing too much through the air and the battle between Dalvin Cook and the run defense of the Saints will be a great battle. The Vikings have been an under team on the road all season and I expect that to continue this week with the Saints wanting to scrape out a win and try to remain as healthy as possible. A big Happy Christmas to everyone I hope you all end up with everything u want under the tree, I’m hoping for coal for the fire, a Vikings win and a much better year ahead than 2020 was.
