Black Swan Bets - Australia's Sports Betting Membership

View Original

Rays Tips NFL Week 7

How To

  1. Use Betting Units. Set your total amount of money to bet with for today and divided it by 100. That is how much each unit is. E.G if you have $1000 / 100 = $10 Units.

  2. Follow the staking advice.

  3. Check the number of units to stake in the caption of each photo.

  4. Always try to use the Best Odds advised.

  5. Join us in the Caveman Telegram Channel https://t.me/joinchat/ae1SR8kKEN0wNDZk

All Times are in AEST.

Tuesday 26th October

Saints @ Seahawks

Saints - 5.5 - Stake 2.5 Units, Minimum Odds 1.9, Best Book - Topsport

The Saints have got a lot of their players healthy over the bye week and will be ready to make a run to the playoffs. The Seahawks defence is one of the worst in the league, unable to stop the run or the pass. Geno Smith will be the Seahawks quarterback, and although I didn’t mind him in his first start, I struggle to see him being accurate this week. Over the last four seasons on Monday Night Football, the away favourite has gone 66% ATS and they have won 87% straight Up. This gives us strong numbers to back up our play.

Kamara SGM - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 3.1, Best Book - Lads/Neds

Alvin Kamara is beginning to see his usual workload in the passing game once again seeing 8 targets last time he played. Kamara had over 90 receiving yards last time he played the Seahawks. The Seahawks have been poor this season at guarding receiving backs.

Monday 25th October

Colts @ 49ers

49ers SGM - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 3.4, Best Book - BET365

Juszczyk SGM - Stake 0.5 Units, Minimum Odds 20, Best Book - Sportsbet

This looks to be a terrible weather game, and I cant see a lot of points coming from either side. This projects to be a slow dink n dunk and running style of play. Kyle Juszczyk is one of the best fullbacks in the league and has seen increased usage in the receiving game while George Kittle has been banged up. In the last three games, Juszczyk has gone over 35 receiving yards each time and has scored once during this run. With the poor weather, I expect Juszczyk to be heavily used, especially in short-yardage situations.

Panthers @ Giants

Daniel Jones Over 20.5 Rush Yards - Stake 2 Units, Minimum Odds 1.88 (or over 22.5 yards) - Best Book - BET365

Daniel Jones cleared this mark easily in the first four weeks of the season. Jones missed week 5 and there was no reason to be scrambling against the Rams last week. I expect Jones to clear this number quite easily in what looks to be a competitive game.

Football Team @ Packers

Packers SGM - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 2.9, Best Book - Sportsbet

Davante Adams is the premier wide receiver in the league. Adams has always bounced back after a down week and i’m expecting him to have a big week here.

Chiefs @ Titans

Chiefs/Titans SGM - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 4.8, Best Book - BET365

This is looking like being a high scoring game with the Chiefs in a good spot to win. AJ Brown looked fantastic in the second half last week and gets a terrific matchup this week to do the same. The Chiefs have been horrid against their oppositions number 1 receiver.

Lions @ Rams

Rams/Lions SGM - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 2.4, Best Book - Lads/Neds

The Rams are on a 42 game run where they have won the match after leading at halftime. I expect the Rams to start fast and force Jared Goff into throwing to his favourite target in Hockenson.

Bears @ Buccaneers

Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown - Stake 2 Units, Minimum Odds 1.9, Best Book - Lads/Neds

Mike Evans is a touchdown machine and has a nose for the endzone. Last season with Tom Brady, Evans had 13 Touchdowns and gets a terrific matchup against a poor Bears secondary.

Texans @ Cardinals

DeAndre Hopkins Anytime Touchdown - Stake 2 Units, Minimum Odds 1.85, Best Book - BET365

DeAndre Hopkins 2+ Touchdowns - Stake 2 Units, Minimum Odds 4.2, Best Book - BET365

DeAndre Hopkins has 6 touchdowns so far this season and shows no signs of slowing. Hopkins has seen his targets go down this season, but he still has a high red zone target share. Hopkins gets a great matchup against the Texans. The Texans are Hopkins former team and it was a harsh breakup. I’m expecting Hopkins to want to put the hammer down against his former team.

Gameday Multi

Gameday Multi - Stake 2 Units, Minimum Odds 2.4, Best Book - UNIBET



Friday 22nd October

Broncos @ Browns

Browns SGM - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 3.4, Best Book - Lads/Neds

Browns Win SGM - Stake 0.5 Units, Minimum Odds 14.5, Best Book - Sportsbet

This week on Thursday Night Football, we have the injured Browns playing the overrated Broncos. The Browns are banged up across every level on offence, with their QB, RB1, RB2 and WR1 all set to miss the game. This, however, won't stop me from leaning towards the Browns having the better game here. The Browns have lost three games against teams that are collectively 13-5. The Broncos, on the other hand, have beaten teams that have a collective 3-14. This shows us that the Broncos are only winning bad teams, and the Browns are losing to good teams. Baker Mayfield being out is a lot less significant than people think, as Case Keenum is very experienced in this offence. Keenum led the Vikings to the NFC Championship Game while leading Kevin Stefanski's offence.

SGM 1 - Rashard Higgins Over 24.5 receiving yards - Higgins has made this line in 12 of his last 14 matches. With OBJ out Higgins should see a slight uptick in targets. Higgins is the number 4 receiver on this team when everyone is healthy, so they should have an excellent connection with Keenum as they are generally training together. - Jarvis Landry Over 44.5 receiving yards - Landry could have been rushed back last week, but the Browns wanted to make sure he was 100% before putting him back in the game. Landry has hit this line in 7 of his last eight healthy matches and will be heavily targetted underneath Keenum. Keenum had a great connection with Adam Thielen in 2017, who was playing a lot of his snaps out of the slot and had over 1250 receiving yards.

SGM 2 - SGM 1 + Browns Win + Jarvis Landry touchdown. - Landry has found the endzone in 6 of his last eight matches and has the upside of being used as a weapon in goalline situations. The Broncos have been poor against slot receivers more than any other offensive position.

NFL Early Lines

Bengals @ Ravens

Ravens -6.5 - Stake 2 Units, Minimum Odds 1.89, Best Book - UNIBET

The Bengals have begun the season as one of the biggest surprises thus far. The Bengals are 4-2, with their losses coming by 3 points; however, I view this as a phony record that will be corrected this week. The Bengals got lucky in their Vikings and Jaguars victories which could quickly have gone the other way. The Bengals offence flashes potential, but they have not faced any elite defences as they will against the Ravens. The Ravens pass rush throws up multiple fronts and can easily expose the Bengals young offensive line. The Ravens makeshift rushing attack is quickly returning to being one of the leagues most potent. It is hard to gameplan against the different running styles and option plays that the Ravens employ. The coaching in this matchup is miles apart. The Ravens have one of the best coaching units in the league. However, the Bengals have an overrated coaching room that has been calling very questionable plays.

Jets @ Patriots

Total Points Under 42.5 - Stake 2 Units, Minimum Odds 1.9, Best Book - Sportmarket

When we look at the Jets and Patriots game, there are two ways we can attack this. We could go with the adage that Bill Belichick has a terrific record against rookie quarterbacks and can gameplan against them. Or we can look at the total with the Patriots being a ball-control team that wants to get ahead then work the clock, and the Jets are showing an inept ability to score. I’m going to be looking at the total under in this match due to this being the second meeting between these two sides. The Jets are coming off the bye where they will have focused on defence and keep games close for their rookie quarterback. The last match between these sides ended 25-6, and I expect another low scoring game here, but a closer match.

Falcons @ Dolphins

Falcons -2.5 - Stake 2 Units, Minimum Odds 1.89, Best Book - Sportmarket

Now this game all comes down to the spot that each of these teams is in. On a neutral field, I have the Falcons as slight favourites, but I can see the Falcons coming through with a big win under the circumstances. The Falcons will be getting Calvin Ridley back this week and are coming off the bye. This week, the Dolphins are severely injured on both the offence and defence and are coming straight off their London game. The rest factor is a significant advantage to the Falcons here, and they have had two weeks to prepare for this game.

Early Line Multi

Early Line Multi - Stake 0.5 Units, Minimum Odds 6.8, Best Book - Pointsbet