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Rays NFL Tips Week 10

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All Times are in AEST.

Tuesday 16th November

Rams @ 49ers, Monday Night Football

Rams SGM - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 3.9, Best Book - Sportsbet

Cooper Kupp has been a touchdown machine this season scoring in 7/9 games. Matthew Stafford has gone over this passing yardage mark in 6/9 games this year. Together these players have been brilliant and they enter a great situation to succeed against a 49ers team who has no special players in their secondary. The Rams lost last week and will be out to run the score up on their division rivals.

49ers SGM - Stake 0.5 Units, Minimum Odds 7.5, Best Book - Sportsbet

We have a great value play on George Kittle who loves playing against the Rams. In the last 6 meetings between the Rams and 49ers, Kittle has hit this line at a 50% clip. Kittle has also scored in 4 of his last 5 against the Rams and gone over the 100 yards receiving mark in one of the contests where he didn’t score. The Rams have been susceptible to tight ends and likely will be again this week, with Jalen Ramsey covering Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk, whoever is lining up in the slot. With my expectation of the Rams going ahead early in this game, Kittle should be set to take on a heavy workload. Kittle also hit this line last week.

Monday 15th November

Chiefs @ Raiders, Sunday Night Football

SNF SGM - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 4.0, Best Book - Sportsbet

It has been a season of mixed results for Travis Kelce so far, but he traditionally loves playing the Raiders. In Kelce’s last 6 matches against the Raiders, he has gone over this receiving yards total 5 times and in each of those matches he went for 90 yards plus. In 5 of the Raiders last 6 matches they have allowed the opposing team tight end to gain the most receiving yards for them in the match. The Chiefs have gone over 28 points in each of their last 6 matches with the Raiders.

Jaguars @ Colts

Jaguars/Colts SGM - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 3.7, Best Book - BET365

Dan Arnold has easily cleared this total in 3 of his 5 matches with the Jaguars. Arnold also gets a terrific matchup this week and his quarterback has a few injury concerns so will be looking for his safety blanket. We are going back to the well with the Zach Pascal Under, which is boosted this week by the return of TY Hilton.

Browns @ Patriots

Browns Win - Stake 2 Units, Minimum Odds 2.0, Best Book - UNIBET

We are getting a great number on the Browns this week who I expect are about to go on a big run. The Browns are getting healthier on defence which showed in their dismantling of the Bengals last week. The Patriots are a good team but are going to be inconsistent with a rookie quarterback. The Patriots defence has been as expected this season but the run first Browns team will prove to be a very difficult matchup for them.

Falcons @ Cowboys

Cowboys/Falcons SGM - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 3.6, Best Book - Lads/Neds

Saints @ Titans

Saints/Titans SGM - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 5.5, Best Book - BET365

Adrian Peterson looked like the worst of the Titans 3 running backs last week, and at his age, he is a shadow of his former self. Peterson also has limited usage, only being on the field on 1st or 2nd down. This all doesn’t bode well coming up against the Saints who have allowed the fewest rushing yards against them in the NFL. Taysom Hill is back and fully healthy now which brings him in to play as the Saint’s x-factor. Trevor Siemian will be the Saints starting quarterback but I expect to see a lot of Taysom Hill as well, especially in the red zone. Alvin Kamara is out this week which makes Hill the go-to touchdown machine against the Titans. I expect to see Hill under centre, out wide and in the backfield throughout the game.

Buccaneers @ Football Team

Mike Evans 2+ Touchdowns - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 3.5, Best Book - Topsport

Mike Evans has scored 2 or more touchdowns in 3 of 8 games this season. This week the Bucs will be without both Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski who are the other big red zone threats in this offence. Evans has scored 2+ touchdowns in 2 of 3 games without Brown, and 2 of 3 games without Gronkowski. What’s even better is Evans gets an amazing matchup against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL this season.

Vikings @ Chargers

Justin Jefferson SGM - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 3.0, Best Book - Sportsbet

Jefferson gets a tremendous matchup this week against a secondary which is as injured as any in the league. This predicts out to be a very high scoring match with 2 potent offences and 2 defences that have failed to live up to the hype.

Eagles @ Broncos

Broncos/Eagles SGM - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 3.5, Best Book - Lads/Neds

Tim Patrick has quietly been travelling as one of the best wide receiver 3s in the NFFL. Patrick has cleared this yardage total in a massive 8 out of 9 games this season. The Eagles secondary is without their best player and is turning into one of the lesser units in the league. Quez Watkins has passed this receiving total in 6 of 9 games this season and should find himself open on numerous occasions this week. The Broncos have some great young cornerbacks but Watkins will be identified as the odd man out and as he usually does, get lost in the shuffle. Watkins has terrific downfield ability and it likely would only take 1-2 receptions to pass this meagre total.

Player Prop Multi

Player Prop Multi - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 6.0, Best Book - BET365

Best Picks Multi

Best Picks Multi - Stake 0.5 Units, Minimum Odds 20, Best Book - BET365

Friday 12th November

Ravens @ Dolphins, Thursday Night Football

Ravens -7.5 - Stake 2.5 Units, Minimum Odds 1.9, Best Book - Sportsmarket

We have the Ravens and Dolphins this week on Thursday Night Football and these are two teams who are going in opposite directions this season. The Ravens snuck out a tough win last week but they were ahead in almost every statistical category. The problem with the Ravens has been their pass defence and in particular their deep pass defence. Now if there’s any team I don’t trust to throw the ball deep it’s the Dolphins and I don’t care if it’s Brissett or Tua at quarterback. There is nothing you can like about this Dolphins team right now and we will likely see big changes next season. The Ravens will be able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air. The Ravens will comfortably dismantle the Dolphins and as it’s a primetime game well start to hear the Ravens Superbowl talk until Sunday.

NFL Early Lines

Bills @ Jets

Bills -13.5 - Stake 2 Units, Minimum Odds 2.05, Best Book - Sportmarket

The Jets have been a hot mess this season, winning games they probably shouldn’t and getting blown out in games they should play close. Right now they have a matchup against an angry Bills team who will be looking to lay a beating. The Bills lost outright in a game they should have easily won last week and I feel for whoever they were playing this week. This Bills side is a strong team with Superbowl aspirations and they will be out for blood against the Jets this week.

Saints @ Titans

Saints Win - Stake 2 Units, Minimum Odds 2.2, Best Book - Pointsbet

The Saints had a tough loss last week, but that is the trend for this weeks early releases. Good teams off the back of tough losses tend to rebound strongly the next week. The Titans didn’t win the game last week, the Rams lost it. The Titans running and the play-action attack looked like a mess and they will struggle mightily against another strong defence who will play them tight. Without Derrick Henry, it’s always a strong play to fade the Titans when they’re in the favourite role.

Rams @ 49ers

Rams -4 - Stake 2 Units, Minimum Odds 1.9, Best Book - Sportmarket

We saw the Rams play a shocker last week in primetime and it’s unlikely they do the same against their division rival. The Rams will be looking to tighten up their defence who let the Titans come through in short field situations. The Rams attack will be looking for a huge bounceback effort as Matthew Stafford will be working on his accuracy. The 49ers have not lived up to any of the expectations I had for them at the start of the season. They have been one of the most injured teams yet again and the Kyle Shannahan offence looks to be figured out by every team in the league. The 49ers lost their defensive coordinator Robert Saleh last season and it had one of the largest effects on a defence I have seen in quite some time. The Rams will be looking to get back into the divisional title race and put the 49ers season to bed.