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Caveman’s Tips NFL Week 3

How To

  1. Use Betting Units. Set your total amount of money to bet with for today and divided it by 100. That is how much each unit is. E.G if you have $1000 / 100 = $10 Units.

  2. Follow the staking advice.

  3. Check the number of units to stake in the caption of each photo.

  4. Always try to use the Best Odds advised.

  5. Join us in the Caveman Telegram Channel https://t.me/joinchat/ae1SR8kKEN0wNDZk

All Times are in AEST.

Tuesday 28th September

Eagles @ Cowboys

Eagles SGM - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 3.4, Best Book - Lads/Neds

Cowboys SGM - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 5.2, Best Book - Sportsbet

Combo SGM - Stake 0.5 Units, Minimum Odds 20, Best Book - Lads/Neds

Monday 27th September

NFL SGM’s

Packers @ 49ers

Packers/49ers SGM - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 4.4, Best Book - Sportsbet

Cardinals @ Jaguars

Cardinals/Jaguars SGM - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 3.5, Best Book - Lads/Neds

Football Team @ Bills

Bills SGM - Stake 2 Units, Minimum Odds 3.8, Best Book - Lads/Neds

Colts @ Titans

Colts/Titans SGM - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 5.0, Best Book - Sportsbet

Saints @ Patriots

Saints/Patriots SGM - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 6.3, Best Book - Lads/Neds

Falcons @ Giants

Giants/Falcons SGM - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 5.6, Best Book - Sportsbet

Ravens @ Lions

Ravens/Lions SGM - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 4.6, Best Book - Lads/Neds

Buccaneers @ Rams

Bucs/Rams SGM - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 6.8, Best Book - Sportsbet

Gameday Multi

Gameday Multi - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 6.6, Best Book - BET365



Previous Releases

Dolphins @ Raiders

Dolphins Win - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 2.55, Best Book - UNIBET

There are not many good things you can say about last weeks Miami Dolphins; they just played poorly. Many people will be expecting us to see the same team out there, but if you believe this, you are sorely mistaken. The Bills defence entirely outclassed the Dolphins, and a mid-game quarterback change did nothing to help them. However, this is not the Bills defence (it's anything but,) and Jacoby Brissett has an entire week to plan for this game. Will Fuller will make his season debut this week, giving Brissett a plethora of downfield weapons to attack this poor Raiders secondary. The Dolphins defence is good; it's not elite, but it is still a top 10 unit, and they have playmakers across the field that can exploit a Raiders offence that has overplayed their potential to begin the season. The Raiders have worked hard to grab their first two wins against solid defences, but the defences that the Raiders have played are rugged physical units that beat you up, hurt you and tax your energy for the following week. I don't predict this match to be very high scoring, and Jacoby Brissett has plenty of NFL experience to compete here. There is also an adage in the NFL called the injured player theory, which shows a massive lift from teammates on the first game a top tier player is out. This is in full effect this week and plays right into the Dolphins hands.

Friday 24th September

Panthers @ Texans

Texans/Panthers SGM - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 3.6, Best Book - Lads/Neds

We have our first non-conference Thursday night game and due to the quarterback issues for Houston, we cant attack this as hard as I usually do. Thursday night games are generally massive traps when the teams are out of conference or even division as there’s not enough time to plan for a team that you are not used to playing against. This week however the Texans will be rolling out rookie quarterback David Mills for his first career start so the nerves that the young man may have is keeping me off the side for this game. Robby Anderson has had a slightly slower start than what was expected this season, but that has given us a massive discount on his receiving yards total. Anderson has still seen 9 targets in the opening two weeks and accumulated 95 receiving yards and a touchdown. Anderson has also run the second-most routes on the Panthers and played on over 75% of the team’s snaps. David Johnson is in a three-headed running back committee in Houston but has a clearly defined role as the pass-catching specialist. Johnson has gone for 18 and 22 yards receiving in the first two weeks and will likely be heavily used this week as an outlet for rookie David Mills. Like all other running backs on this roster, Johnsons best days are behind him, but the Carolina pass rush and the skittish play of a rookie quarterback should see him used early and often. Christian McCaffrey is generally my go-to Carolina play, but this week he feels like a trap play. McCaffrey has dealt with injury problems throughout his career and it would make a lot of sense for Carolina to bench him early or manage his workload if they are up by two scores. The threat of this is keeping me off the McCaffrey overs and I wouldn’t have the guts to bet a weapon like him under the total.

Early Lines Week 3

We only have two early lines up right now as we wait to see a few injury reports. We will have more out before Sunday.

Colts @ Titans

Titans -6.5 Alternative Handicap - Stake 2 Units, Minimum Odds 1.9, Best Book - Sportsmarket

NB. This is an alternate line as I can see the line crossing this and the all important number of 7. If you can only get -5/-5.5 then that is fine to take, as I predict this line to close at -7.5/-8.5.

In week one, the Titans had a shocker, then turned it around in week 2 to grab an away win against the Seahawks in an overtime thriller. The Titans defence is not good, and we all knew this was going into the season, but we saw life from the offence this week, and it's likely this is what we're going to see going forward. The Colts have been less than convincing with Carson Wentz under centre, and it's unlikely he will suit up this week. Usually, I like it when a teams backup gets their first game under centre, but unfortunately, Jacob Eason should not have a job in the NFL. This Colts team is not going to be able to do anything through the air with Eason. If Carson Wentz plays, he has two sprained ankles and will be utterly immobile behind an offensive line that has struggled in pass protection to start the season. Jump on this one before it moves.

Buccaneers @ Rams

Buccaneers Win - Stake 2 Units, Minimum Odds 1.87, Best Book - UNIBET

The Buccaneers have come through with two wins to begin the season but have not looked close to finishing last season. The Bucs Offense has been firing, but their defence has been struggling in the secondary. The Bucs secondary struggles; it helps to have Tom Brady as your quarterback, so you are never worried about being in a shootout. The Rams have come through with two wins to begin the season, but they have not come without questions. On offence, the Rams run game looks shaky at best and will struggle against the Bucs staunch front line. I also want to see how the Rams passing game goes if Stafford has to throw to anyone other than Cooper Kupp. However, the most significant question marks for the Rams come on defence, where their secondary looks well below par outside of Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey will be moving around the field all day trying to take out one of the Bucs weapons; however, there are just too many for him to cover. There aren't many games where we can take the Buccaneers at a pick 'em price.