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Caveman’s Tips NFL Week 2

How To

  1. Use Betting Units. Set your total amount of money to bet with for today and divided it by 100. That is how much each unit is. E.G if you have $1000 / 100 = $10 Units.

  2. Follow the staking advice.

  3. Check the number of units to stake in the caption of each photo.

  4. Always try to use the Best Odds advised.

  5. Join us in the Caveman Telegram Channel https://t.me/joinchat/ae1SR8kKEN0wNDZk

All Times are in AEST.

Tuesday 21st September

Lions @ Packers

Packers Adams SGM - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 5.0, Best Book - Lads/Neds

Packers Jones SGM - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 5.0, Best Book - Sportsbet

Packers Combo SGM - Stake 0.5 Units, Minimum Odds 28, Best Book - Lads/Neds

The Packers are coming off a loss that was downright embarrassing for them. The Lions are coming off a loss that doesn’t look too bad if you strictly look at the scores. This is exactly why I can see the Lions getting blown out this week. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers always bounce back strong after a win and I can see them blowing the Lions out of the water early and letting Aaron Jones finish the game off. Last season the Packers lost 3 games and in the game after that Davante Adams averaged over 140 yards receiving and scored every time. This week the matchup for both Adams and Lazard is extreme and they have my 1st and 4th best wide receiver matchups of the week. Aaron Jones comes in with my 3rd best running back matchup against this poor Detroit run defence who allowed over 100 rush yards to San Francisco’s number 3 running back last week. The only reason i’m not laying the -11.5 on the Lions, is I have a rule to not give double digits out on divisional games. We are getting some awesome prop numbers this week thanks to last weeks results. We likely won’t see these numbers again for the rest of the season so we need to strike while they’re low.

Monday 20th September Starting @ 03:00

Sunday Night Football

Chiefs @ Ravens

Chiefs/Ravens SGM - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 4.4, Best Book - Lads/Neds

Saints @ Panthers

Panthers/Saints SGM - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 5.4, Best Book - Lads/Neds

Patriots @ Jets

Patriots SGM - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 4.8, Best Book - Lads/Neds

49ers @ Eagles

49ers/Eagles SGM - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 7, Best Book - Sportsbet

Bills @ Dolphins

Bills SGM - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 4.6, Best Book - Lads/Neds

Bengals @ Bears

Bears/Bengals SGM - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 6.4, Best Book - Lads/Neds

Rams @ Colts

Rams/Colts SGM - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 7.0, Best Book - Lads/Neds

Vikings @ Cardinals

Cardinals/Vikings SGM - Stake 1 Unit, Minimum Odds 7.0, Best Book - Lads/Neds

Falcons @ Bucs

Bucs SGM - Stake 2 Units, Minimum Odds 2.9, Best Book - Lads/Neds

Titans @ Seahawks

Seahawks SGM - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 4.5, Best Book - Lads/Neds

Cowboys @ Chargers

Cowboys/Chargers SGM - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 5.2, Best Book - Sportsbet

Friday 17th September

Giants @ Football Team - 10:20

Football Team SGM - Stake 1.5 Units, Minimum Odds 3.5, Best Book - Lads/Neds

This predicts out to be a low scoring game, but both Gibson and Thomas get positive matchups against the Giants. Antonio Gibson will be the focal point of this offence with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback. Last week Gibson went off for a solid 90-yard game and faced a tougher run defence than the Giants have. The Giants surrendered 165 rushing yards last week to the Broncos. Logan Thomas looks to be in for a big game as one of Heinicke’s favourite targets. Heinicke sent Logan Thomas all of his targets last week and when he started his one game last season, Thomas had 5 receptions on 9 targets for 74 yards. The Giants allowed 62 yards to the Broncos number one tight end last week.

Early Line NFL

“One game does not a season make”

Each week I will be dropping early tips for the NFL where I expect to see line movement before we get to game time. These may not always end up moving, or occasionally due to unknown circumstances, the activity may go the other way. Still, the majority of the time, we will end up beating the closing line. Through years of research and my betting history, I have learnt that these early lines can be crucial, as what is a good bet at the start of the week may not be so good by kick-off. NFL is a sport that has some essential numbers where games tend to fall in both totals and point spreads, and getting to the right side of these numbers can be one of the most critical parts of NFL betting.

Patriots @ Jets

Patriots -5.5 - Stake 2 Units, Minimum Odds 1.87, Best Book - BET365

The Patriots were unlucky to lose last week after they fumbled the ball late in scoring territory. Apart from this late fumble Mac Jones looked good, and the running game looked great. The Patriots defence looks solid, with the secondary being a slight concern, but this won't matter against the Jets and a rookie quarterback. If you look at the Jets score against the Panthers, you may be tricked into thinking this was a close game, but in reality, it was anything but. The Jets also lost a tonne of players to injury. One thing I love in this game is the coaching and, in particular, Bill Belichick. Belichick has an incredible record when facing opposing rookie quarterbacks and knows precisely how to gameplan against them. Belichick is also scary coming off a loss with the best record in the NFL in that category.

49ers @ Eagles

49ers -3.5 - Stake 2 Units, Minimum Odds 1.9, Best Book - Sportmarket

The 49ers were rolling against the Lions last week until a late Lions rally against mostly 49ers backups brought them back into the game. Trust me when I say we won't see this late-game complacency this week after the 49ers get to rev up at training. The 49ers had three injuries in their win, one was Dre Greenlaw which looks like a minor groin injury and is likely to play, and the other 2 were Raheem Mostert and Jason Verrett, who will both miss the rest of the season. The Mostert is mitigated by the 49ers having the deepest running back stable in the league. The Verrett injury opens the door for free agent Dre Kirkpatrick and likely Richard Sherman. The Eagles showed promise on offence against Atlanta, but we will see that Atlanta may be the easy beats of the entire league over the next few weeks. An excellent connection between Jalen Hurts and Rookie Devonta Smith and Miles Sanders showed moments of competence, but this offence is rather vanilla apart from these players. Defensively the Eagles are a shadow of their former selves and lack speed across the board, something the 49ers have in spades. My favourite part of this game is that the 49ers decided to stay in Virginia for the week to mitigate the travelling effect on them. When teams choose to do this, it generally translates to improved performance in the second week. Not only will the 49ers not have any jetlag or time zone issues, but they will spend a week together gelling as a team and improving their comradery.

Raiders @ Steelers

Steelers/Raiders Under 47 - Stake 2 Units, Minimum Odds 1.89, Best Book - Sportmarket

What a performance from the Raiders in a gutsy win over the Ravens. What stands out the most for me in that match was the Raiders pass rush. Maxx Crosby looks to have ascended to the next level, and Carl Nassib was excellent deputising for Yannick Ngakoue. The Steelers offensive line is still full of holes, and the Raiders defensive line should win the battle in the trenches. For the Steelers, their defence well and indeed won them the game against the Bills, and this is what they will be leaning on all season. Ben Roethlisberger looks the worst I've seen him for a while. The decline is well and truly on for Big Ben, and I doubt he sees the season out as the starter. The Steelers have been a great Underplay for the last few seasons as Big Ben has been in his decline, and we have another excellent opportunity to exploit a total that is set too high.