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UFC Austin
Kattar
VS
Emmett

Sunday 19th June

Jasmine Jasudavicius VS Natalia Silva

I'm skipping over a lot of the early prelims for our single bets as most of the early fights have big favourites that could win in a variety of ways. Silva here is by no means a lock, however, we're getting over the odds for her sub prop. Silva has finished her last 5 and 7 of her 12 wins by sub. Jasudavicius is by no means a great fighter and has a habit of gassing late in her fights. This is a low-level fight, but Silva can quickly lock up a submission at any point if this fight hits the mat.

Adrian Yanez VS Tony Kelley

This is a play because of a poor Tony Kelley weight cut. All week I had Yanez as the stronger fighter, but with two durable fighters, I wasn't sure if he would get the finish or not. Kelly missed weight today and looked horrible at the weigh-ins. Kelley couldn't keep his eyes open, was shivering and was very depressed when his weight was read off. Now, this would have been a bigger bet if Kelley still looked terrible at the face-offs, but he did look better a few hours later. Even with this though I think Kelley's gas tank will be affected and Yanez increases his tempo later in fights. Yanez is a crisp boxer and there's some background stuff with Kelly that has Yanez fired up.

Julian Marquez VS Gregory Rodriguez

Now there are two reasons I'm on Marquez here with the first being Marquez is a strong durable fighter who has a lot to like about him and the second being I think Rodriguez is very overrated. Marquez has a lot of power, has a great chin and durability and has this great ability to wrap up submissions even though he's not a high-level wrestler. Rodriguez has shown in the past he can get knocked out when facing a heavy hitter and even though he'll be the better grappler, I see this as a poor decision for him with Marquez's tight guillotine squeezes. A lot of people are on Robocop this week, which keeps pushing our price up.

Joaquin Buckley VS Albert Duraev

We have two fighters here who I will be looking to fade in the future however they are for opposing reasons. Duraev is a good fighter but he doesn't show elite ability in either his striking or grappling and will likely be overvalued in future fights. Buckley, I just don't think is a very good fighter who has heavy strikes but that's about it. These two are former training partners which can only favour Duraev as the better technician who will know he only has the power of Buckley to worry about. Duraev is a finisher who went to a decision in his last fight, so we're getting nice odds on the finish.

Tim Means VS Kevin Holland

Kevin Holland has one of the biggest personalities in the UFC and now that he's found his home at welterweight will find a lot more success. Holland is a relentless striker with good defence but traditionally poor grappling however we are continually promised that he has been working on this. Means is an older fighter who is on the back 9 of his career and will likely struggle with the output of Holland. The only concern I have with Holland is he is someone who loves fighting a bit too much and will play with his food just so he can stay in the cage for longer. With that said, Holland knows he needs finishes to quickly move up the rankings and will likely knock Means out, however, don't completely rule the club and sub.

Donald Cerrone VS Joe Lauzon

Joe Lauzon and Donald Cerrone are two veterans of the game who will likely only have a couple of fights left. Both fighters have handled their fair share of damage over their careers and a quick finish would be what both fighters are looking for. Lauzon has notoriously been a quick finisher throughout his career and 3 of his last 4 wins have all come in the first round. We are getting a great number on Lauzon early here as if he can't get this done quickly he will likely gas out and get finished himself.

Calvin Kattar VS Josh Emmett

This is going to be a brilliant main event with two fighters who will be putting themselves into the heart of the title picture with a win. Kattar is coming off a great win over Giga Chikadze last time out and will be looking to use his volume and incredible durability to get the win. Emmett has heavy hands with big KO power and will have an advantage in the grappling as well, but I find it difficult to see him getting the finishing blow on Kattar whose only loss inside the distance came in 2008. Emmett has never fought 5 rounds before and I see this as a big red flag where Kattars volume will take over. I see Kattar getting the late KO and calling out the winner of Volkanovski Holloway for a title shot.

Best Bet Multi

UFC Austin Super Action Multi