Week 4 Sunday Football

New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions

Matchup Insight

The injuries have come for the Saints, and the Lions team is improving each week, especially last week after getting their asses kicked by the Packers. The Saints seemingly need everything to go right to score, as the long passing game is non-existent. Jamie Collins and the rest of the Lions back seven matchup decently well with the Saints in this game. Where the matchup looks terrible is the Saints back seven versus the Lions passing game, with both of their top 2 CBs out. Adrian Peterson looks to be as good as ever, making multiple explosive plays this year. The Saints are similar to the Ravens, in the fact that they play very well when ahead, but struggle to catch up when behind. This line should be around 1.5 to pick'em.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup Insight

The Bucs offence still did not look to be on point last week, as the passing game is still struggling, as well as the offensive line. Now, this can be expected with much roster turnover, and I see the offence starting to hit its stride in the coming weeks. The big surprise to me has been the play of the Bucs defence, which has improved every week since losing to the Saints week 1. It is very rare for a young rookie QB, who is not a finished product, to keep a game close on the road versus good defence. The only way this game stays close is if the Bucs offence still struggles vs an above-average Chargers defence, despite their injury problems

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup Insight

The Bengals defence is overrated. This game should be in the '50s. It's astonishing to see Vegas overreact and put so many totals in the '50s, and this game hovers just under that at 49.5. In this matchup, this will be the best offence that the Bengals have gone against all year. Getting back DJ Chark will be huge for the Jags. The Bengals gave up 35 points to the Browns, who have not been great on offence this year. The Jaguars defence is one of the worst in the league. AJ Green should have a good chance to finally show he isn't as washed up as his statistics seem

Seattle Seahawks @ Miami Dolphins

Matchup Insight

Just because the Dolphins have been decent this year, does not mean they are anywhere close in talent to the Seahawks. Although the Dolphins have not given up very many points, talent-wise this is one of the least talented teams in the league. I can see Russell Wilson going off for another 3 to 5 TD's with no intercepts, and cement his early spot at the top of the MVP list. The Seahawks are dealing with a few injuries, as are the Dolphins, but this line should not be -5.5. I think Jamal Adams being out has impacted this line way more than an injury to a safety should impact anything. Neither team can rush the passer, and with some injuries in the back 7, I can see this being another game the Seahawks are involved in a total combined over.

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers

Matchup Insight

The Cardinals have been inconsistent all year, and are possibly without their top WR Hopkins, which will have a drastic domino effect on the rest of their offence. The Panthers have also been inconsistent, especially in the red zone. Now, this is where the loss of Christian McCaffery affects the team the most, as they have not had much trouble gaining yards, but have had much trouble in finishing drives off with TDs. Teddy Bridgewater only having thrown two TDs through 3 games, speaks volumes about their struggles. Arizona has also struggled to finish, especially passing in the red zone. Now, this will be especially true if Hopkins is out, so this is a stay-away game for me, as Hopkins availability should shift the line a few points. The Panthers defence is horrific, but the Cardinals offence has been inefficient and inconsistent most weeks. I foresee lots of yards, but lots of field goals. I have been unable to find such a bet, but I love Joey Sly to make a 50+ yard field goal. It is possible the Arizona defence steps up, and this turns into a 31-7 kind of game.

Cleveland Browns @ Dallas Cowboys

Matchup Insight

This line should be closer to 7, as the Browns were not competitive in their only game vs a decent team in the Ravens. The Browns defence has underperformed, and their secondary outside of Denzel Ward is atrocious. Their game versus Washington was close until the 4th quarter when Washington turned the ball over on their final two meaningful possessions. Meanwhile, Dallas’s two losses were both verses above average to good teams, coming down to the final possession both games. Even with no fans, I still do not trust the Browns on the road. I like the under here, as I think the Cowboys defence is underrated, as they have played against 3 of the best offences in the league so far this year.

Indianapolis Colts @ Chicago Bears

Matchup Insight

I have a feeling Mitch Trubisky gave Matt Nagy half of his salary this year to win the starting job in training camp. Maybe Trubisky is only useful in training camp when he knows he can’t get hit? Who knows, but I could watch a 3 part documentary about making this decision. Now, on to the pick, where I have the Colts overrated due to their elementary early-season schedule. As well, starting Trubisky starts your team down 7-0 at the beginning of the game, yet the Bears still found a way to pull out close wins. Even with no fans, I can’t see noodle arm Phil going into Chicago and winning by more than a field goal. Worst case scenario, the bears get a worthless 4th quarter T.D with under a minute left for the backdoor cover and the over. The Bears have been fantastic in the 4th quarter all year long. The Colts offensive line is built to hold the lead, but I still don’t trust Rivers in close games due to his past of not coming through in the clutch.

New York Giants @ Los Angeles Rams

Matchup Insight

Joe Judge has got to be thankful for Adam Gase still not being fired. After reading and watching Giants training camp, I immediately started looking for anyone to take a small bet that Joe Judge will be fired by the end of the 2021-22 season. It’s like if Tom Coughlin’s younger self has been transported to the future, which I can see the Giants brain trust as being a good thing. The Giants were embarrassed last week, and look for them to either lose by 35+ or keep the game close all game, similarly to how the Giants played against the Bears in week 2. I cannot see this game going over unless Daniel Jones makes multiple turnovers inside his 30-yard line(which is possible). Now that the league has seen some of the tweaks Sean McVey has added to the offence, I expect defences around the league to adjust. The problem with this pick is, as far as the +13.5, is that Jason Garrett is the Giants offensive coordinator, and has been one of the worst offensive coaches this year. Daniel Jones looks like he went to Arizona State, not Duke, as he is very slow to process the game, even in this super vanilla offence. The Rams can’t keep this up all year, especially their dominant run game. The Rams have not yet proven themselves to be an elite team again, but if they trounce the Giants, they very well could be.

Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders

Matchup Insight

Both defences have been terrible. The Bills usually do not travel very well, especially to the west coast. I cannot see Buffalo being an elite team that you can trust to be more than a field goal favourite against an above-average team. Although the Raiders have a few key players currently listed as doubtful, I do not trust Josh Allen’s ability to hold onto a lead, as he has made countless errors this year. They were somewhat lucky to beat the Jets week 1, as Josh Allen was very careless with the football on the run. I like both of these offences and the schemes they run. Both teams should have no trouble both running and passing the ball. The Raiders defence has been horrific in the red-zone all year, and will most likely continue to be. Both teams, other than Tredavious White, lack talent in the back 7.

Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers

Matchup Insight

Having been embarrassed in tying the Bengals last week, expect Doug Pederson and the Eagles to be aggressive early. No matter how much respect I have for how the 49ers offensive and defensive schemes, they should not be favoured by more than a touchdown while playing a backup quarterback. Had the 49ers played any team apart from the Jets and Giants the past two weeks, this line would be around +4, so I see this as a major overreaction to recent weeks by Vegas. Now, this is especially true for the San Fransisco defence, who has still not been tested at all by any team they have played, as Arizona was not very good on offence week one until exploding for two TDs in the 4th. Having Kittle and Samual back on the 49ers sideline will help, but I cannot see the Eagles laying yet another egg, even if they are travelling to the west coast.