8th December 2020

Dallas Cowboys @ Baltimore Ravens

Matchup Basics

Matchup Insight

This week we once again get a bonus night of football featuring the Baltimore Ravens vs the Dallas Cowboys. The Ravens have had a huge fall from grace after starting the season 5-1 averaging almost 30 points per game, they have gone 1-4 in their last 5 averaging only 20 points per game. The Cowboys had everything to play for on Thanksgiving but ended up capitulating into a horrible 41-16 loss and now average less than 15 points per game since Prescott got hurt. The playoffs are slipping away from both teams as injuries and illness have put both these team’s seasons on life support. The Ravens need to win this to stay close to the Browns and the Cowboys need to win this to save Mike McCarthy’s career.

The Ravens will be ecstatic to see they have reigning MVP, Lamar Jackson, back in the fold this week after he tested positive for being a terrible quarterback over the last few weeks. RG3 was poor with both his reads and throws vs the Steelers and it now seems likely the Ravens will move on from him after the season. This will be a brilliant get-back-to-basics game for the Ravens offense which has looked as phony as a $3 coin throughout November. Getting back to basics means attacking the ground with their trident approach run game. JK Dobbins has moved to the top of the depth chart and has shown glimpses of his game-breaking ability throughout the season. Gus Edwards didn’t have a great game last week where he was used more as a pass blocker but should get back to his main role as a short-yardage and goal-line back where he has been solid this season. Lamar Jackson has not been as prolific in the run game this season but he has averaged over 55 yards per game on the ground. Getting the ball moving on the ground will be vital as the Cowboys have the worst run-stopping unit in the NFL. This should hope to open up the play-action with Hollywood Brown and Devin Duvernay who go up against a secondary that won’t be able to match their speed and athleticism.

The Cowboys offense has been the most disappointing unit in the league this season. Everything was going well until Dak got hurt then the problems started multiplying. The offensive line has been horrific in run blocking and pass protection this year and it doesn’t help when you don’t have any starters left. Not only are the offensive line starters all out but half the backups are injured and they have to protect a quarterback who has always suffered from awareness issues. The wide receivers have been decent enough however they face a Baltimore secondary that has 3 outstanding cornerbacks that will match up with them well this week and give nothing away cheap. Ezekiel Elliott has been a disaster so far this season and his fumbling issues are very 2020. Zeke can’t do anything on the ground or through the air, he looks slow, and to be honest Tony Pollard has been the back that looks more threatening out of the backfield.

The Ravens defense has been great when healthy this season. Matthew Judon looks to be the only likely omission this week but that loss will be mitigated by Yannick Ngakoue stepping up who has looked great over the last couple of weeks. The Ravens love to bring the blitz, bringing 4 or more blitzer’s more than any other team in the league. This will be crucial into getting Dalton off balance and forcing him into low % throws and bad reads. The secondary has been brilliant this year with top tier talents right across the back line. Jimmy Smith has been especially good and looks like age will not deteriorate his play. Brandon Graham and Calais Campbell will return this week adding length to the run stopping unit and applying pressure to the poor Cowboys offensive line. The Ravens defense has been extra vigilant this season as well being the least penalized unit in the NFL which is an underrated stat which helps to decide games more often than we like to admit.

The Cowboys defense this season has been brutal and i see no quick fix for this unit to get any better. They have allowed the most rushing yards per game and given up almost 5yards per carry, they have been horrific in coverage with their best corner back Awuzie ranking out at 77th per PFFs best cornerbacks and they have don’t have the ability to stop anyone when it counts allowing teams to complete almost 50% of 3rd down attempts. To add injury to insult this week the Cowboys will be without Anthony Brown, Donovan Wilson and potentially Aldon Smith who has been their best pass rusher this season. This unit is also starting to look tired after being on the field for such a long time, the Cowboys are probably the team that is hoping for the offseason to begin the most so they can replenish their ranks.

Player props to follow for the Ravens in this one include, JK Dobbins over 55.5 rushing yards. Dobbins should be the lead back in this one but the ball will get shared around more towards the end so keep an eye out especially if the Ravens go up early. Lamar Jackson over 54.5 rushing yards looks a great number for a guy who is averaging more than this and will be wanting to put the hammer down early. Marquise Brown over 3.5 receptions looks a nice number for a guy who has caught at least 4 passes in 5/6 Ravens wins, Gets a good matchup, and will be Jacksons favorite target with Mark Andrews out. For the Cowboys Andy Dalton to throw an interception looks highly likely as he’s thrown one in his last 4 straight. I also like Dalton to rush for over 5.5 yards. Dalton is not usually known as a mobile quarterback but in his 2 games vs stronger pass rushes this season he moved his rifle for over 15 yards both times and could definitely step forward in this one to try and move the sticks.

The Last Word

The Ravens will employ the get back to basics approach in this and ride it all the way to a big redemption win. I find it very hard to see where abouts the Cowboys will be getting their points from up against this healthier defense. The Ravens -8.5 looks a solid bet but just be wary of the Cowboys who will be rested and are in the dangerous “nothing to lose category”. I lean slightly to the under in this one again because I’m not sure how well the Cowboys will be able to score but I would definitely be looking to fade this one. Enjoy the football on our bonus Tuesday and rejoice in the fact that this season we are treated to football being played on every day of the week for the first time ever.