17th December 2020

Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders

Matchup Basics

Matchup Insight

Thursday night gives us more action from the AFC West which has given us the best divisional games so far this season. Earlier this season we were treated to a fantastic match where the Raiders fought back after being down at the half. Herbert has been progressing at light speed through his rookie season and will look to take advantage of a defense he has already carved up once. The playoffs are effectively gone for the Raiders so this takes a lot of pressure off of them and allows them to play freely. A huge variable in this game is Anthony Lynn, the Chargers coach. Lynn may be that bad of a head coach that he has to be accounted for whenever analyzing any Chargers game. 

The Raiders have been a great over team this year with a quick point-scoring offense and a terrible defense. The Raider’s run game has been poor as of late with Josh Jacobs dealing with a lingering injury and Devontae Booker not lead back material. Jacobs has had a disappointing season and looks to be another Darren McFadden type that has all the promise and potential in the world yet injuries look to be a deterrent to fulfilling this. Derek Carr has had a very good season this year but is starting to allow those brain lapses he is prone to back into his game recently. Carr has thrown an interception in his last 4 games straight and his completion rate has been dropping fast. Nelson Agholor has had the best season of his career and has started to look like a starting receiver again. Henry Ruggs will miss this game which will solidify Agholor as the top downfield threat this week. Hunter Renfrow is a matchup based receiver and should have a strong one this week in the slot, Darren Waller has been on fire over the last few weeks and has been Carrs favorite guy once again. Waller had over 40% of the targets in the first game. The Raiders offense still had a decent game last week and will be looking to finish the season strong.

The Chargers offense has been consistent all season but even better when they can control the pace of the game by utilizing the run. Austin Ekeler looks like he hasn’t missed a step since returning to action and has instantly rekindled that connection he has with Herbert. Ekeler is one of the best dual-threat backs in the league and takes a lot of pressure off this terrible offensive line. This offensive line has been horrible this season and it’s a wonder Herbert hasn’t been injured due to their horrendous blocking. Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler have been Herbert’s favorite targets this season and will be seeking them out again on Thursday night.

The Raider’s defense has been horrific this season and 1 offseason will not be enough to fix all the problems on it. The Raiders has no position group that is even average it is just poor across the board. The pass rush has the 2nd fewest sacks in the league and struggles to create pressure or hurry the quarterback at all. The run defense has been horrible over the last 4 weeks allowing over 100 rushing yards each week and over 200 in each of the last 2 weeks. The coverage unit has been terrible and outside of Johnathan Abram has very little ability from sideline to sideline. 

The Chargers defense has been better on paper this season than they have looked on the field. The secondary has been as good as we expected coming into the season allowing the 5th fewest yards to quarterbacks. The equation to beat the Chargers this season has been simple, run the football and control the clock. This is where the Chargers defense has been exploited this season luckily for them though the Raiders have been terrible in the run game over the last month. The Chargers have made only 23 sacks this season and have one of the lowest blitzing defenses in the league. The Chargers have been strong against tight ends this season and will be looking to shut down the Raider’s main threat in Darren Waller. 

Player props to look at in this game include Justin Herbert over 276.5 passing yards. Herbert has gone under this over the last few weeks but should bounce back against this poor Raiders defense especially now that he can target Ekeler in the passing game. I also like Herbert to make over 38.5 pass attempts a number he has gone under only once since week 6. Austin Ekeler to go over 57.5 rushing yards and over 40.5 receiving yards are both great options but you would be much better to go with total yards over when your book releases a line on that. Keenan Allen gets a great matchup vs Lamarcus Joyner in the slot however Allen has not beaten 52 receiving yards over the last 3 weeks. I would look towards Allen over 6.5 receptions as he averages over 11 targets per game and will still see his targets.

For the Raiders Nelson Agholor over 4.5 receptions looks great as he has been a great deep threat for Carr this season and should see additional snaps and targets as Henry Ruggs will be out. Hunter Renfrow gets a good matchup in the slot although over 50.5 receiving yards and 4.5 receptions is a bit too rich for me. Jalen Richard over 9.5 rushing yards could be a sneaky low number that becomes a play due to the Josh Jacobs injury. Richard is predominantly used on passing downs but 1 could see him getting between 2-4 carries in this game as he’s used as a change of pace guy. Bryan Edwards was used as a starter to begin the season then phased out with the emergence of Nelson Agholor. Edwards should see increased snaps in this match as he shares that #3 WR spot with Zay Jones. Edwards has not yet scored a touchdown in his rookie season and this opportunity looks like his best shot of getting one before the end of the season. Derek Carr will no Edwards hasn’t had one and will look to target him in the red zone to help the rookie not end the season on a goose egg. At $8 or more there looks to be some value in going that way this week.

The Last Word

This game worries me a little with 2 teams that are effectively out of the playoff hunt doing battle in Vegas. Both offenses are set up to score points and both defenses have allowed opponents to score at will this season so the over 53 looks to be in play but I’m not super excited about it when you factor back in the Anthony Lynn factor. I’m not a fan of the spread too much either with the Raiders -3 the only way id go but I’m not prepared to lay a field goal with a team that may have the worst offense and defense on the strip. This looks to be a great game but I will be looking forward to watching it more than betting on it this week. Anthony Lynn when the season is over I know some people that work in phone sales, they might be able to fix u up with a job so you can learn how to dial a number and make a call.