10th December 2020

New England Patriots @ Los Angeles Rams

Matchup Basics

Matchup Insight

Just 1 night off since the end of last week’s games were back with Thursday Night Football coming from the Sofi Stadium in L.A. The Patriots are coming off a huge win over the Chargers and are staying out west so they won’t have travel to deal with. The Rams are off a win away to a division rival in which Jared Goff was able to find his receivers with ease. This match will be a crucial decider for both teams with the playoffs approaching. The Patriots have 3 matches to finish the season against divisional rivals while the Rams will be finishing the season strong against playoff contenders as well.

The Patriot’s offense has been abysmal all season and the improvements haven’t been made to help this unit recently. It all comes down to Cam Newton and his terrible play at the quarterback position. Newton has lost all strength in his arm, his accuracy makes his eyes seem worse than Jameis Winston and his decision making has been slower than a sloth on heroin. The run game is the only thing that has been bailing this offense out and without it, the Patriots season will be done. Damien Harris has looked explosive this season, the return of Sony Michel and passing downplay of James White will present a triple threat capable of being dangerous on any down. The Patriots will need these running backs to be firing if they have any hope of getting through the 3rd best run-stopping unit in football. Jakobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd have both played well this season but their role in the offense is completely dependant on what is going through Bill Belichick’s head and how he wants the game played.

The Rams offense has been brilliant in the passing game this season and is starting to make great strides in the run game. Jared Goff is by far the most inconsistent quarterback in the NFC. Goff has games where he looks unstoppable and games where he doesn’t bother turning up at all. T of snaps in the last game. the emergence of Cam Akers in the run game will help to take a lot of the pressure off Goff and open up his deadly play-action passing ability. Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods have been one of the most potent wide receiver duos in the league this season, however, I cant see them getting as much space to roam the field this week. The middle of the Rams offensive line has been key this season in opening up the run game and should be able to take advantage of a bad Patriots defensive line that has been terrible through the middle. Cam Akers maybe finally giving this 3 headed rushing attack a face to lead them to the playoffs. Akers has had 30 carries for over 150 yards and 2 TDs in the last 2 weeks and played on over 60% of offensive snaps last week. Jared Goffs 3 worst games this season where he had 3 TD’s to 5 ints, less than 62% completion rate, and an 0-3 record, came against teams with top 5 secondaries and he gets another one to contend with here. 

The Patriots defense is starting to really take shape and is reemerging as a unit to be reckoned with. Stephon Gilmour is healthy again and starting to find the form that has eluded him for most of the season. JC Jackson who has looked like the Patriot’s best corner this year has been limited in practice this week and will be a game-time decision. The Patriots have held opposition passers in check the last 2 weeks making 3 interceptions and allowing 0 passing touchdowns. This pass rush still has a long way to go when it comes to sacking the quarterback but they have created the 2nd most amount of pressure on passers which causes QBs who aren’t very mobile-like Goff to throw errant passes that can get picked off easily. The run-stopping ability has really come through lately allowing only 51 rushing yards per game over their last 5 games. 

The Rams defense has been brilliant this season with elite playmakers all over the field. Darious Williams is having an amazing season and is breaking out opposite Jalen Ramsey to make one of the best outside coverage units in the league. Where the Rams have struggled is through the middle to tight ends, slot receivers, and running backs. Aaron Donald and Micheal Brockers cause so much disruption up the middle we should see a scattershot Cam Newton making errant throws to double covered receivers. The Rams have been strong against the run this season as well allowing less than 4 yards per carrying to opposing backs and haven’t allowed a single running back to tally more than 50 yards rushing against them in the last 6 weeks.

The best receiver matchups this week go to the two slot receivers as the outsides will be shut down early and often by these great secondary’s. Jakobi Meyers over 48.5 receiving yards and Cooper Kupp over 60.5 receiving yards show value this week as their reception totals are a bit too high vs their yardage totals. The Rams have been average vs receiving backs this season so James White over 20.5 receiving yards shows value just beware that White has had great matchups over the last 2 weeks and has done absolutely nothing so the form is not currently on his side. The Rams have been strong against running quarterbacks all season so Cam Newton under 42.5 rushing yards looks great especially as he’s not 100% at the moment. With the return of Sony Michel, the threat of losing snaps to the better pass protector in James White, and the suffocating Rams defense I believe there’s great cause this week to take Damien Harris under 50.5 rushing yards as well.

The Last Word

This looks to be another defensive masterclass on primetime football. This is the week we’ve been waiting for all season as each of the prime time games is going to be epic battles that have massive consequences for the losers. I side with the under in this one as I don’t think the inept offense out of Foxborough will be able to cause a dent in the Rams solid offense. The Rams love playing to the under both when they are at home and as a favorite so I see their defense winning this one. The spread is a little harder to call but I still think the Rams can cover especially that it’s now dropped to -4.5. After Thursday night football one of these teams will be alive for a playoff spot while the other will be strapped to the gurney looking up at Tyrod Taylor’s doctor calling time of death on their season.