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Broncos @ Sea Eagles

Friday 14th May 2021

Game History

This is a fiercely contested matchup that could no be closer over the years. All time there has been nothing to split these two sides, with the record sitting at 23-23-1. In recent years the Broncos have won four of the last six; however, the Sea Eagles did win a close match last season. The Broncos hold a commanding advantage when this match is played in Brisbane with a 15-10 record, including winning six of the previous seven. In two previous matchups between these teams that Gerard Sutton has officiated, Manly have come out ahead in both.

This Season

The season started very slow for the Sea Eagles, but they have caught fire of late to show they should be at the bottom end of the eight come finals. In the first game of the season, Manly coped a hiding from the Roosters and, in particular, were demolished down their left edge. Since that first game, that side has shown to be their strongest defensive side and have not conceded any other tries to right-wingers. The Sea Eagles season flipped in week 5, where they managed a hard-fought win over the Warriors in an ugly match. Week 6 saw the return of Tom Trbojevic, who has breathed an incredible amount of energy into this team and has scored in every game he has played. Manly are on a 4-1 run over the last five weeks, with their only loss coming against competition heavyweights Penrith. The Sea Eagles have been reasonably fortunate in terms of injuries lately and are only a couple of forwards away from an entire strength squad.

The Broncos are showing that they are very slowly learning from their mistakes over the last few years. It will be a long process for Kevvie Walters and co, but the Broncos have taken several steps in the right direction. Although they have suffered a couple of significant defeats to competition heavyweights, the Broncos have performed admirably at Suncorp Stadium. At Suncorp this season, the Broncos have a 2-2 record with their two losses against two big five teams. The Broncos defence at home has been impressive, and this will continue to improve all season. This week is a vital spot for the Broncos, who will be looking to get back into the winner’s column after a tough loss last week.

The Matchups

Sea Eagles

The right edge for the Sea Eagles has been formidable as of late. They have commanded a high try-scoring strike rate when spreading the ball that way, with Jason Saab especially playing himself into form. Saab is a raw, unrefined winger that has the potential to grow into an exceptional talent. This week Saab has the more difficult matchup against the more potent defensive edge of the Broncos. Corey Oates has been on the left-wing for the Broncos in the four games. He has only conceded one try, and that was last weeks Kyle Feldt masterclass. Jason Saabs 5 game try-scoring run could come to an end this week.

The Sea Eagles left edge has been inconsistent as of late but is still the preferred attacking edge. The left side will get the preferred matchup this week, and Reuben Garrick will have a great duel against Melbourne bound Xavier Coates. Although Manly like attacking down this side, they have not managed to score as many tries from their attack. The introduction of Tom Trbojevic has hurt the left edge as Manly are no longer reliant on one side and can attack from anywhere in the park.

Tom Trbojevic. There’s not a lot more that needs to be said here. Turbo is one of the premier players in the league, and he is lethal from anywhere on the field. There’s no matchup you can call for Trbojevic as he floats everywhere, and it feels like he plays every position. Turbo has had a significant effect on the right edge, bringing Saab and Harper’s talent into play and has helped Daly Cherry-Evans. DCE can play more as an attacking threat, with Turbo controlling more respect from the defence. This is going to be vital this week as the Broncos experiment with new combinations in the middle. The Broncos have given up the most tries in the league to opposing fullbacks.

The Middle of the field battle is going to be crucial in the result of this game. Manly will control a slight advantage on this front, mainly due to the unpredictability of Thomas Flegler at lock for the Broncos. Jake Trbojevic has been looking better each week since his brother has returned to the park. Trbojevic always starts to perform close to Origin, so look for his explosiveness. Lachlan Croker is a player that I didn’t have much confidence in at the start of the season but has performed amicably.

Broncos

The Broncos right edge has been their dominant attacking side this season. This will present a brilliant matchup against the more decisive defensive edge of the Sea Eagles. Xavier Coates has been in excellent try-scoring form so far this season but will struggle this week against Reuben Garrick’s defence. Another thrilling matchup on this side will be Tevita Pangai JR up against Josh Schuster. These two players have been amongst the best on an edge this season, and we get a power vs skill matchup this week. 

The left edge of the Broncos has been subpar in attack this season and only starting to become defensively sound in the last few weeks. Corey Oates has lost the game-breaking ability he showed a few years ago, and his best position may be to come off the bench. This is the Broncos edge that will get the better matchup this week, but unfortunately, they don’t have the personnel to exploit that.

Jamayne Isaako has continued his run of inconsistent performances that have plagued him over the past few seasons. On his day, Isaako looks like one of the best backs in the league, but he also can have matches where he’s as safe as Ben Hunt under the high ball. This week poses an excellent match-up for Isaako, and it leads into a time where he must start to deliver consistent results if he wants to cement his place in the team. The Sea Eagles have given up the second-most tries in the league to fullbacks.

The Broncos hope to settle on their halves combination with another impressive display by Milford and Gamble this week. Gamble needs to show that he can stick around in first grade next season, and Milford needs to create a highlight tape so he doesn’t have to sign up for Centrelink. Milford has shown in the past an ability to display his skills when it counts, and no game matters more than right now. Milford is best when running the football, and he has begun to show some promise in that regard last week. The Sea Eagles have allowed seven tries to opposition halves, making this put up or shut up time for the Milf.

Betting

Right now, the line on this game is at 9.5. This line is simply too many points to give up to a Broncos outfit that has flashed ability this season. At Suncorp, the Broncos have lost by no more than 8 points, including matches against the high flying Eels and Panthers. I see terrific value in this $2 line at Ladbrokes, and although I believe the Broncos can win this game outright, we are getting too good of a line to ignore.

The Total Points in this match are 45.5 for $1.90, which is much too high a number. There is no position in this matchup that has a clear advantage that can lead to exposure. The best-attacking edges for these teams will run into the best defending edge for the opposition. This is the type of match that will be played through the middle of the park, leading to low scoring games. The only previous game to go over 40 points at Suncorp this season was the Brisbane Gold Coast derby, where both teams had a point to prove.

I don’t believe the wings will have elementary days of it today, and if you’re looking for a back score, I would be looking towards the Centres and Fullbacks. Tom Trbojevic has been in terrific form of late, but this has plummeted his price down to get across the line. Jamayne Isaako, although slightly less likely than Turbo to score, has a much nicer price at $3 and will be a significant boost to SGM’s. Jesse Arthars at the centre has scored in his last two matches for the Broncos and pays over the odds at $3.75 to get across the stripe.

Both teams have struggled through the middle at times this season and have conceded numerous tries to halves. Anthony Milford would be my preferred option to score from this role paying $4.50. If Milford is serious about staying in the NRL, he will need to score a few tries this season.

Jake Trbojevic is an excellent try-scoring forward of the past who has looked more impressive over the last few weeks. There is value in the $4.75 for any time try scorer, but it does come at the risk of Jake being a ball-playing forward. If he can rekindle the connection with his brother, however, this bet is over the odds.

Low Odds SGM - Broncos +9.5, Total Points Under 45.5 $2.81

Mid Odds SGM - Tom Trbojevic anytime try, Jamayne Isaako anytime try $5.27

High Odds SGM - Broncos Win, Total Points Under 45.5, Anthony Milford Try $22.59

All bets have been sourced off Ladbrokes odds and are correct at the time of publishing.