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Every week Trav and I will break down each game and released a video on all of our best bets. Check out the video, read the blog and have a great week of footy!!

From this week on the Caveman blog will focus on fewer matches but provide an in depth statistical and analytical breakdown that will give you all the information to make better bets.

Dragons @ Roosters

Sunday 25th April 2021

Game History

Since 2000 we have had 18 ANZAC day matches between the Roosters and Dragons, with the Dragons holding an 11-7 advantage. The median point difference in these matches has been 10 points. We have seen many closer games in this ANZAC rivalry, bringing the best out of both sides. In recent history, the Roosters control a commanding 14-4 record over the Dragons; however, the four Dragons wins hall come in the ANZAC bout.

This Season

This season the Dragons have been outperforming everyone’s expectations. Ben Hunt could be returning for this game, and what a game to have him back. Hunt was brilliant for the opening few rounds of the season, and the Dragons will need him firing to have any chance this week. The Dragons attack has been above average, showing they can create opportunities from anywhere on the field. They have maintained an excellent strike rate against mid - poor defences; however, more robust defences, particularly middle strong defences, have asked many questions of the Dragons so far. The Dragons defence itself has also been middle of the road. St George has not exposed any major holes, but they’re also not forcing teams to alter their game plan for them.

The Roosters started the season off in incredible fashion. Sydney constantly moved the ball down the right-hand side to tremendous success, albeit against weaker opposition. The injuries came in the Rabbitohs game forcing the Roosters to sputter through the last few weeks. We saw a lot of the mental strength of this team in the latter stages of the Sharks game, where they managed to overcome a heavy deficit to get a comfortable win. Last week against the Storm, the Roosters fought valiantly even with their depleted roster. A few close calls for the Roosters could have made the end of that game exciting. Defensively, the Roosters are a top 5 unit and regaining a portion of the troops this week will only help them.

The Matchups

Roosters

The Roosters have been considerably stronger down the right side of the field this season, thanks in part to the sensational play of Brett Morris. Morris has scored 11 tries already this season and doesn’t look likely to slow down soon. Morris has scored at an impressive rate his entire career and has an excellent record against the Dragons in recent years. Morris has scored in 4 of the 8 ANZAC day matches he has played in. These games were for the Dragons in the early portion of his career. Brett is yet to suit up for the Roosters in an ANZAC clash. Even though Morris is on an excellent run of form, the Dragons are yet to allow a try to a right-winger this season.

James Tedesco is a player that started the season on fire but has fallen by the wayside in recent weeks. This is a regular occurrence for Tedesco during his spell at the Roosters, but one thing we know for sure is that he always bounces back. Tedesco is yet to score against the Dragons on ANZAC Day, but Teddy does boast over a 50% strike rate against them in his career. The pressure looks to be mounting on Teddy to produce a stellar performance as he carries the team on his back. Tedesco scored in his first four matches this season, grabbing the Roosters first try on each occasion. The Dragons have already leaked four tries to fullbacks this season.

The left side of the Roosters attack has not seen much action this season, but this is on the increase. Daniel Tupou and Josh Morris are both classy veterans with outstanding try-scoring records. When given the chances, these two players form a tandem that is as good as any in the competition. The Dragons have leaked more tries to this wing this season, especially out wide. Mikaele Ravalawa can be shown to be lacking in defence, especially near the touchline. With Tupou holding a 12 cm height advantage over the flying Fijian, I expect many high balls to be contested on this wing.

Dragons

Unlike the Roosters, who have one of the most experienced back lines in the competition, the Dragons have a very young attacking corps. Mikaele Ravalawa boasts a brilliant strike rate over the course of his career. Unfortunately for Ravalawa, he has struggled against the Roosters in the past, with only one try in three matches. Ravalawa also runs into a difficult matchup against a strong Roosters left edge that has only allowed one try so far this season.

However, Zac Lomax has an incredible record against the Roosters, with four tries in 4 matches, including one from one on ANZAC day. Lomax has shown his try-scoring prowess this season as well with three tries. Although lining up opposite Josh Morris is considered a tough matchup, Lomax still has the best chance at getting across the line.

The left side of the Dragons attack has a more decisive matchup. This is unfortunate for them as it is also the Dragons weakest attacking edge. Cody Ramsey has shown glimpses of his potential so far this season, but he is still an unrefined speedster that needs to get more involved in the game and improve his technical skills. Jack Bird has always been a better defensive player than he has attacked; however, Bird loves a try against the Roosters. Bird has scored four tries in his five career games against the Roosters.

Matt Dufty is looking to be taking the next step up this season. Dufty has always been a try-scoring machine from the back. This season, however, he has taken on more of a leadership role in the backline. Dufty has scored in one of the two ANZAC matches he has played in, and it would not surprise me in the slightest if he makes that two of three. Dufty is averaging a try a game so far this season and gets a decent matchup against the Roosters, who are not particularly strong against fullbacks.

I am giving a slight edge to the Roosters in terms of the forwards in this match. The Roosters have more experience and higher potential game-breakers. This advantage is only tiny, though, as there are still weaknesses in the Roosters forward pack. The Dragons forward also boast game-breakers like Vaughan and Sims; however, the rest of their troops still need time to develop into their roles. 

The Dragons have a clear advantage in the halves. Ben Hunt is rumoured to be returning this week, which will only strengthen their spine. If Hunt does return to the field this week, he has an incredible scoring rate against the Roosters with nine tries in 13 matches across his career. The Roosters halves show many potentials, but with only 15 NRL starts between them, they will need to find a way to handle the pressure on the big stage.

Betting

There are several ways I have seen to be able to bet on this game. The line is currently at -6.5 for the Roosters for $1.90, and I see value in this if you want to go that way. The Roosters have covered this line in every win they have had this season and have their backs against the wall to avoid successive losses. This clash is traditionally on the lower scoring end, and I can see value in the Under 41.5 at $1.90; however, I would be leaning towards the line as a more substantial bet. I expect a lot of this game to be played in the forwards.

We’re getting $2.10 for both James Tedesco and Daniel Tupou to score tries this week, and I expect both of them to be in the mix with favourable matchups. If you want a better price for James Tedesco, look into the Roosters first try-scorer market. Tedesco has scored the first Roosters try in every match he has dotted down this season. $5.75. We are getting $2.50 for Josh Morris to score a try and $3.10 for him to have more tries than Jack Bird. I see good value in both of these markets.

For the Dragons, Matthew Dufty at $2.80 shows excellent value for a guy who has scored 6 tries already this season. Zac Lomax holds a terrific scoring record against the Roosters, and $3.00 is a higher mark than expected for him to cross the line. Lomax’s matchup isn’t the best, but he could be worth a flyer.

If you’re looking for a nice short price SGM, I like the Roosters to win and James Tedesco to score a try at $2.62. If you want to get behind the higher price bets I have found value in, James Tedesco to score the first Roosters try, Zac Lomax anytime try and the Roosters -6.5 for $40.02.

All bets have been sourced off Ladbrokes odds and are correct at the time of publishing.

Warriors @ Storm

Sunday 25th April 2021

Game History

The Storm and Warriors have been engaged in their annual ANZAC day clash since 2009. In this time, there have been ten matches, with Melbourne winning 7, the Warriors winning 2 and 1 draw. The Storm has controlled the recent matches between these teams, currently on a nine-game win streak, including the last four ANZAC matchups. It’s hard to get a read on how these games are played as it could either go very close or the Storm could get a big win.

This Season

The Storm has looked strong to begin the season despite having a pair of losses already. The matches where the Storm has struggled are against prospective top 4 sides in the Panthers and Eels. Both of these losses were closely fought and low scoring. These low scoring matches will become a trend of the Storm this season when they face other quality opposition. The Storm got past the Rabbitohs and Roosters in terrific fashion to show they are still up there with the leagues best, even though they lost Cameron Smith. The Storms other two games were complete demolitions of two bottom eight teams. This is very interesting to note in how we should expect this match to be played out as I place the Warriors closer to the third group than any others. Ryan Papenhuyzen has been terrific this season but will miss out this week due to injury. Nicho Hynes will take a starring role in this match.

The Warriors have been a blender of inconsistency so far this season, but ultimately are starting to level out on the bottom half of the ladder. The New Zealand outfit have shown a great mentality and solid defensive mindset, mainly through the middle. The issues for the Warriors have been in their inability to score in bunches. The Kiwis are not going to be able to stay competitive in matches for long when scoring only three tries or less. Injuries and suspensions have hampered the Warriors all season, and in true Warriors fashion, we will use these as excuses for why we’re not competitive.

The Matchups

Storm

Josh Addo-Carr has been a bit of a disappointment this season in terms of his strike rate compared to his career average. However, when we look under the surface, we see he has had many opportunities to come up just short or be on the receiving end of poor passes. The Fox holds an impressive record against the Warriors with five tries in 7 matches and has scored in two of the three ANZAC day matches he has played in. Although defensively strong through the middle, the Warriors have been struggling on the flanks. The Warriors have given up four tries to left-wingers already.

Nicho Hynes is a player that shows tremendous potential and is just the next in line of quality fullbacks the Storm have produced. Hynes has had limited opportunities so far in his career but has taken them whenever he can. In four matches on the starting side, Hynes has scored two tries but has looked lethal with the ball in his hands. Storm fullbacks have a great record of scoring against the Warriors.

The right edge of the Storm is slowly becoming more relevant as the season moves on. George Jennings has been increasing his workload and they have been doing better defensively. This edge is still the third attacking option for the Storm; however, who will attack through the middle and left edge first.

Both of the Storm’s halves have got excellent try-scoring pedigree. Cam Munster is lethal with the ball in his hands, and Jarome Hughes has an excellent try-scoring pedigree. These guys have been on the score sheet already this season and have a friendly scoring rate against the Warriors; however, a lot of this has been when they are playing fullback.

Warriors

David Fusitu’a has been struggling for form so far this season. Fusitu’a has only one try since August 2019. To say he’s due may be an understatement, but a try could be on the horizon for the Fus. The Storms defence has been strong through the middle but weak on the edges. Fusitu’a has a brilliant record against the Storm with six tries in 8 matches. Also, the Fus has scored in four of the five games he has played on ANZAC day.

The left edge of the Warriors has been a slightly better attacking threat so far this season. Not only this, but they get the more decisive matchup against the weaker Storm right edge. With all this, I’m still finding it challenging to back Ken Maumalo to get across the line this weekend. Maumalo has a great work rate, but he is a very phony try scorer. This has to do with the Warriors continuing to play through the centre of the field and reluctantly spread it wide. Maumalo gets a tremendous height advantage over George Jennings this week, but I can’t see the Warriors being down that end of the field enough to make this count. It wouldn’t surprise me if Maumalo got across the line, but I won’t be running my slip to the bookies.

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck has been in terrific form this year, playing in his last season in the NRL. RTS has scored many tries in his career, but he has 0 tries from 9 games against the Storm when he has been in the fullback position. The Storm has an excellent defence against fullbacks, allowing only two tries to the position this season, both in garbage time.

The Warriors forwards have been lethal close to the line so far this season and will be in an intense battle with the Storms big men. The middle of the field this weekend will be an epic battle, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big man or two falls over the line.

The Warriors halves have been a quiet revelation so far this season; however, this will be their toughest matchup yet. Their kicks are going to have to be pinpoint, and timing will have to be impeccable. Kodi Nikorima needs to get the ball in his hands more as he is lethal running and drawing players close to him.

Betting

I initially looked at the Warriors line for this game as I viewed this game as a potential low spot for the Storm. As I was going through all the stats and the individual matchups, I feel the Storm are the much better team in this game. The line is Storm -16.5 at $1.90 and the number, to be honest, feels a little low. The only way the Warriors cover this line is if the game is played through the middle of the park the whole time, but I can’t see this happening. 

The total in this match is 42.5, and the only way I can bet this is by taking the Under at $1.90. Sure the Storm could clear this total themselves if they want to, but I just can’t figure out how the Warriors will get their points.

For the Storm, I like Josh Addo-Carr $1.67 and Nicho Hynes $2.20 to get across the line. I also like the Storms halves, Hughes $3.20 and Munster $3.00 to score, but I feel only one of them will get the job done, and I can’t quite get to the window for which one I prefer.

For the Warriors, I am struggling to find positive match ups that give us a try-scorer edge. The best is probably David Fusitu’a, $2.75, who has an outstanding record in the ANZAC match. The only issue I have with this is Fusitu’as recent form. The Warriors under 2.5 tries at $1.53 looks like an excellent play in this match.

If you’re after a low odds, SGM, look at; the Warriors under 2.5 tries and the Storm to score first at $2.0. If you enjoy betting the long odds, check out the Storm -16.5, most tries between Nicho Hynes and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck Nicho Hynes, First Warriors try-scorer - No Scorer $33.91.

All bets have been sourced off Ladbrokes odds and are correct at the time of publishing.