9th November 2020

New England Patriots @ New York Jets

Matchup Basics

Matchup Insight

A story as old as time that’s right we have another camera scandal in this rivalry and you have to wonder, how many weeks suspension is Brady going to get for this one? Brady is of course gone, he headed down south to get beat up by Drew Brees and the Louisiana posey but that’s a story I will cry myself to sleep over for at least the next few nights. This Jets camera scandal doesn’t have the impact as the last and feels less like Bill Belichick and more like Jerry Sandusky. Both these teams are desperate for a win or are they desperate for a loss in the race for Lawerence? Still, they are 2 teams that hate each other and will look to buck their recent trends in order to get a win on the board. The Patriots hold a 16-2 record vs the Jets since the 2011 divisional round game and have won the last 8 games straight.

Offensively both of these teams are built very similarly, with a road grader offensive line, strong rushing attack, a lack of quality receivers, and quarterbacks that play for the other team more than Freddy Mercury. This does happen to be a get right spot for both teams though. The Jets would love to come out and get the win so they can take momentum with them into the bye and the Patriots would love to take momentum into the showdown with the Ravens next week. Joe Flacco looks set to lead the Jets and has a decent record vs the Patriots led by 2 big playoff victories. Flacco hasn’t played too great so far this season but if there’s ever a time for a get right spot it’s Monday night with an increasingly good-looking rushing attack. Cam will get what is probably his last chance to lead the Patriots with Stidham waiting in the wings if he should fall flat. This should light a fire and I expect him to come out fast and alive.

Defensively these teams are polar opposites. The Patriots are built back to front and will need their pass defense to carry the same momentum they had in the last couple of games in order to make up for their porous run defense. The Jets however have been stronger against the run but have more holes than a golf course in their back end. Their big run-stopper Quinnen Williams looks set to miss this game however which will allow the Patriots to control the tempo a bit more. The key for the Patriots defense will be slowing down the Jets slot receivers who have been the best part of their offense so far this season.

Player props to get on in this one include Damien Harris over 54.5 rush yards, but check inactives first as he has been under a bit of an injury cloud. Keep an eye on the inactives, if it shows Jamison Crowder playing jump on his over 4.5 receptions but if he doesn’t suit up then get on any Braxton Berrios props as the Jets slot receivers will get a great match up here. Jakobi Meyers also gets a strong matchup vs Pierre Desir who was torched last week by Mecole Hardman. Cam Newtons passing yards total is low so you can take anything up to 215 vs a bad secondary.

The Last Word

This is always a bitter matchup of 2 teams that hate each other. I expect to see a few fights and more points than these teams have produced in recent weeks. The Jets team total is low so getting over 15 points shows value as well as them to get on the board in the first quarter. I lean with the points in this one as I find it difficult to bet on a big road favorite on Monday night. Jets +10 over 41.5