21st December 2020

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup Basics

Matchup Insight 

After a tough week last week, Big Appel Collective came back strong this week with an impressive 4-1 record on our best bets. We are still running at over 66% on best bets for the year and are making everyone that extra cash needed to survive the holiday season. It was an extra special weekend for me as I won a ps5 in addition to my profits. This week on Monday night we get the Steelers vs the Bengals in an AFC North clash that the Steelers will be desperate to win. Both Brandon Allen and Ryan Finley are terrible quarterbacks for the Bengals and they’re not going to be able to make much noise against this strong Steelers defense. The Steelers after 2 back to back losses will be fired up to get a huge win here and propel their season into the playoffs.

There’s not much to like at all about the Bengal’s offense at all averaging just over 300 yards per game and only 18.8 points per game. In the 3 games since Burrow has been injured the Bengals are averaging only 10 points per game, less than 200 passing yards, and only 60 rushing yards per game. These numbers were boosted by playing the terrible Dallas defense last week. There’s not a lot to be happy about for the Bengals offense except for them being in a prime spot to grab generational-type talent left tackle Penei Sowell in the draft next year. Ryan Finley the 3rd string quarterback looks to be starting this game.

The Steelers offense has been a mixed bag this year, they were flying high when they could get some type of production from the run game however with the run game failing on them as of late their other weaknesses are getting exposed. The run blocking this season has been brutal as the Steelers have been putting all their eggs in the pass protection basket but their line is starting to look healthier which is going to be a big help. James Connor is questionable for this game but whoever runs the ball for the Steelers should find production against a terrible run-blocking unit. The Steeler’s wide receivers are all settling into their own niches in this offense, Diontae Johnson is the possession and target hog, Ju-Ju is the slot and over the middle guy, Claypool is the red zone and gadget guy and James Washington is a deep threat. When you combine all of these guys with big guy Eric Ebron you have a deep receiver set that should be able to carry their quarterback through the playoffs in a similar manner that the Broncos did with Peyton Manning. 

The Bengal’s defense has been terrible this season and has been looking worse of late as they have been forced to stay on the field for longer periods of time. They have allowed over 100 yards per game on the ground during this time and have been especially terrible against tight ends. The pass rush has been abysmal with a high 32% blitz rate on passing downs yet only 15 sacks to show for it which doesn’t bode well against a Steelers protection unit that is one of the best in the league. The Bengals are going to be completely outclassed in this game in a season they just want to be over. 

The Steelers defense has taken a small step back over the last few weeks mainly to their congested schedule and a few key injuries. The injury of Devin Bush was huge but when his replacement Robert Spillane went down it officially became time to worry. Bud Dupree was another guy who was enjoying one of his best seasons before injury struck. It’s incredible to think that even with these 3 guys out the Steelers still have one of the best linebacking groups in the league. Joe Haden will be returning from injury this week in a huge boost to the secondary. Haden has been one of the best corners in the league over the past 8 years and he will be a crucial part of their playoff run. After back to back losses, this defense will strike down with great vengeance and furious anger in an attempt to right the losses of the last few weeks.

There’s not a lot I love in the way of player props this week but Eric Ebron over 3.5 receptions should be a good shout against one of the worst teams at blocking tight ends. Chase Claypool both gets the best matchup out wide and has the lowest receiving yards number at over 39.5. Claypool has been listed as a starter over the last 2 weeks and poor matchups are the only thing that has stopped him from breaking out. There is value in Claypool to get a touchdown at $2.75 as well. The only Bengals props I could get behind would be Tyler Boyd under 44.5 receiving yards and Tee Higgins under 40.5 receiving yards. These are both matchups based but its hard to get a positive read on them as were not sure who Ryan Finley is going to come out and target.

The Last Word

This game looks all one-way traffic with a Steelers team that will be frustrated after back to back losses. The Steelers -14.5 is a big number but one that I believe should come in just beware though as the Steelers have won by 15 or more in Cincinnati only once since 2008. I like the under in this game as well but at 40.5 I’m a little worried that the Steelers might end up scoring a few too many points. In an unconventional bet this could be a game where you could play the line/total points double. Pick your poison for how much you want to tease each line but my favorite is Steelers -10.5/Under 43.5 for $2.75.