7th December 2020

Washington Football Team @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup Insight

Due to the Ravens COVID-19 outbreak we have yet another rescheduled game this time with the Washington @ Steelers game moving to Monday night to give us a great double header with 4 teams that have playoff aspirations. The early game tonight will be a battle of strong defenses against offences that have overperformed against bad teams and under performed against good sides. This has been a Steelers controlled defensive showdown in recent history with the Steelers winning the last 6 straight, 4 of which failed to tally 30 combined points.

The Washington offense is on a high right now after dispatching a poor Dallas side in embarrassing fashion. Antonio Gibson had a breakout day and Terry Mclaurin continues to show how underrated he really is. The same can not be said for Alex Smith who seems to have reverted back into his old ways of being a game manager instead of an active leader. Smith is great at sustaining long drives with dump-off passes and finding mismatches with Terry Mclaurin but in order for these to work he needs to have a strong running game behind him. This week Washington will face one of the strongest run defenses in the league and every positive yard will be a battle. JD McKissic has had a great season to date but when we look closer at the numbers there is a huge variance in his play. In losing efforts McKissic has averaged over 9 targets, 6 receptions and 45 yards per game through the air. In winning efforts those numbers for Mckissic drop to 3 targets, 2 receptions and only 16 yards through the air which shows great potential for a good day from McKissic up against an undefeated Steelers outfit.

The Steelers offense has been one of mediocrity as of late and they are starting to show the signs of a long season with no real bye week. This was supposed to be a 10 day break for the Steelers but once again because of COVID outbreaks in their oppositions camps they have had their games shuffled and now play on a very tough 5 day turnaround. The fatigue is starting to set in as well as Roethlisberger has been dealing with an injury all season and their depth is about to be tested after a hard fought match against bitter rivals Baltimore. It has been shown throughout this season that after playing physical defenses teams show wear and under perform which is something I can see happening in this match. Benny Snell is once again the running back for Pittsburgh and will continue his career of mediocrity against a fast and swarming defensive line. The one part of the Steelers offense you can usually count on is their pass protection, but this will be put to the test this week against a rested Washington pass rush that has the second most sacks in the league.

The Washington defense this season has been brilliant. They have one of the best pass rushes, have allowed the second fewest passing yards and are in the top half of the NFL in run defense. This is going to help to keep the pressure on Big Ben and the tired Steelers offense as they will be forced into throwing the ball more as Benny Snell is poor and their run blocking has been garbage. On the defensive line Chase Young has shown he is every bit the player we thought he was coming into the draft and Montez Sweat is having a brilliant breakout year which surely will have removed the bust label from him. Ronald Darby and Kendall Fuller are both having great seasons out wide with the only exploitable mismatch coming through the slot.

The Steelers defense has been brilliant this season with the resurgence of the Steel Curtain in full swing. The Steelers lead the league in total yards allowed, sacks and points allowed. The Steelers welcome back defensive lineman Stephon Tuitt this week however will be losing star pass rusher Bud Dupree. TJ Watt has been growing into a perennial DPOY candidate and will be pushing Aaron Donald to the wire for the award, a good showing here may even push him ahead as he has shown more versatility this season. The Steelers vaunted secondary will be put to the test this week as they look to be without Stephen Nelson. This will put Cameron Sutton into a starting role in which he will be tested as he is predominantly a slot corner so expect to see safety help over the top on his side of the field.

There’s not too many player props I like in this one as I do see it being a lower scoring game but Ben Roethlisberger under 272.5 passing yards jumps out as a number that is too high vs a good secondary. James Washington over 12.5 receiving yards looks like a nice low number in a game where Ben will be spreading the targets around to try and find the mismatch. For Washington JD McKissic over 3.5 receptions and over 22.5 receiving yards both show terrific value especially if Washington is playing from behind. The Steelers have been strong this season vs receiving backs but Alex Smith will be forcing the ball to him especially if they are behind. Antonio Gibson over 47.5 rushing yards also shows value as the Steelers have eased off in run game defense a bit since Devon Bush got injured.

The Last Word

This will be a great game to watch if your like me and love watching defensive football. The Steelers will be tired in this one and may be caught looking ahead to the Bills game next week, which will be much more important for them. The total of 43.5 seems a great spot to go under as scoring will be difficult. I loved Washington +10 earlier in the week and still really liker it on Saturday when it was +8, now that its crossed the 7 and sits at +6.5 I still take a lean to that side but I cant bet it as all the value has been extracted from it. This is a great example of when not to just take the number that the books are giving you even if you like the side as with less value this would be a negative value play to make.

Buffalo Bills @ San Francisco 49ers

Matchup Basics

Matchup Insight

In our second game on Monday night we get the8-3 Buffalo Bills looking to capture their first NFC East crown since before the Patriots dynasty vs the well coached 49ers who are still in the hunt for a wildcard spot. This game will be played in Arizona as Santa Clara has issued a ban on all recreational events forcing the 49ers to move their next 2 home games and potentially the rest of their season. The Bills are a team that has scored a lot of points this season especially in away consists and after a win. The Bills are 3-1-1 to the over in away games, 6-0-1 to the over after a win and 3-0 to the over against the NFC West this season.

The 49ers have been inconsistent at best on offense this season depending on the players they have available at their disposal. On offense this week Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle look to be the only big name players that are expected to miss out. This is a lot better than a few weeks ago when they had no wide receivers, no running backs yet still managed to stay competitive in games. This has a lot to do with the brilliant coaching and play calling in the bay area so its going to be great to see what Shanahan can do with more starters. Brandon Aiyuk has been having a great rookie season especially in recent games where he has had 31 targets and over 280 yards receiving in his last 3 games. Deebo Samuel has been on fire when healthy this season and the tandem between him and Aiyuk is going to be almost impossible to stop. Samuel this season has hauled in over 75% of his targets and has only missed 2 of his targets outside of the Miami game. The main way the 49ers are going to beat you is on the ground. Raheem Mostert was solid in his return last week splitting snaps with Jeff Wilson after his fumble. Mostert projects to be the main ball carrier to start the game for the 49ers but as we know Shanahan does like a committee approach and will move around to the hot hand if someone else breaks out.

The Bills offense has been playing brilliant in the passing game this season. The running game outside of Josh Allen has left a lot of questions to be answered. The run game almost plays better when either Moss or Singletary are not playing and the Bills can run with a lead back. Josh Allen has thrown for at least 260 passing yards in each away game this season although this is going to be a lot harder this week against a much improved 49ers secondary. Stefon Diggs has been brilliant this season especially in away games where he has only had 1 game under 90 receiving yards. Allen always loves to find his safety blanket in away games although Diggs will have to battle with Richard Sherman all day.  Cole Beasley has been inconsistent all season but has been better on the road. In Beasley’s last 2 road games he has caught 22 passes and gone over 200 yards which helps with Jamar Taylor not playing this week. 

The 49ers defense showed last week they can be much better when they become healthier. The secondary showed last week they can be a lockdown unit, especially if they can get some pass rush pressure. Even with all the injuries the 49ers defense has been brilliant this season allowing the 4th least yards in the NFL and have allowed only 37% completions on 3rd down. The key for the 49ers will be to get to the passer, if they can knock Josh Allen down a few times especially with his dodgy knee this week they can really bottle him up and force errant throws.

The Bills defense has been average at best this season showing flashes of potential in pass coverage, but have been consistently poor against the run. The Bills are allowing 4.7 yards per carry to running backs (4th worst in NFL) and they have to go up against the best run game play caller in the league. The Bills have been ok against outside receivers but shocking against slot receivers. Unfortunately for the Bills with the exotic looks that the 49ers use every receiver gets time in the slot and they will take full advantage of the mismatches. The Bills defensive line has been poor this season especially in the middle. This is bad news for the Bills as the 49ers have been average in the middle of their offensive line this season but strong when their bookends are healthy, like they are tonight.

Player props I like for tonight include Raheem Mostert over 56.5 rushing yards as he looks to punish a poor run defense. Brandon Aiyuk has been brilliant with Nick Mullens so over 54.5 receiving yards with him shows great value especially as hell see his share of time in the slot. Deebo Samuel over 51.5 receiving yards also looks great value as he should spend time in the slot as well and has hands of glue. For the Bills Cole Beasley gets the best of the matchups and his total is only at 54.5 showing value there. I also like Josh Allen to throw an interception in this one as he starts to get frustrated and making errant throws. Stefon Diggs under 77.5 receiving yards could be an interesting one as the 49ers have been good at shutting down opponents number 1 receivers.

The Last Word

This will be a great battle between these two teams but the coaching in this one will stand up and see the 49ers pull through. The Bills are 2 different teams, when they are ahead and when they are behind. This looks to be a game where the Bills will be playing from behind early and the 49ers will come out with the win here. I lean towards the over 46.5 in this one as i can see the Bills getting some points late especially if the 49ers are out to a big early lead. As bad as this season has been with postponements and players missing games its great to get double hearers like this especially when its not the last football of the week.