16th November 2020

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Matchup Basics

Matchup Insight

Brrrrrr its cold out there, there must be some Vikings in the atmosphere. Monday Night Football this week gives us another divisional rivalry this time from the NFC North pitting the free-falling Chicago Bears up against the streaking Minnesota Vikings. This match is always a tough hard-fought match-up with 2 defenses that are usually as tough as a $2 steak, this year we get one of the best defenses in the league in Chicago and a Vikings outfit that has looked 1 horn short of a helmet all season. Offensively don’t be expecting 50-yard miracle bombs as we saw last night as the 2 quarterbacks have as much pocket awareness as Stevie Wonder crossing the road. The Bears have won the last 4 games in this competition all in low scoring defensively controlled games. The defense-first Bears side has gone 4-11 73% to the under after a loss and 7-14 67% to the under as a home team since Matt Nagy took over.

Offensively both of these teams are very inconsistent. They have terrible offensive lines that can keep their QBs upright about as much as Khalil Mack’s tackling bag and their quarterback - wide receiver connection lacks consistency and fluidity. The one area where the Vikings hold a controlling advantage is in the run game where Dalvin Cook is on fire right now racking up over 470 scrimmage yards in his last 2 outings. The Bears rush attack has been amongst the worst in the league since Tarik Cohen got injured, they will be missing David Montgomery this week as well so expect to see some exotic play calls coming from the Bears backfield. If the Vikings are going to get a win in this one they need to keep the ball out of Kirk Cousins’s hands. In the last 2 wins Cousins has 34 combined pass attempts and 0 interceptions, Cousins has never won a football game where he has thrown 2 or more picks. Nick Foles can be inconsistent at times but always comes to play when the lights are on, Kirk Cousins has never won a Monday Night Football game going 0-9 in his career.

The Bears defense has been playing lights out this season which is all the more impressive considering their offense keeps pulling them back onto the field. They have allowed only 19 points per game to opposing teams at home and have allowed only a 60% completion rate to QBs (2nd best in the league). Kyle Fuller has been lights out this season taking away the opposition’s top wideout almost every week, his 60 QBR when the ball is thrown in his direction is the 8th best in the league. Against the run, the Bears haven’t been quite as strong but still rank in the top 10 in the league in yards allowed per game, yards per carry, and rushing touchdowns allowed. The Bears pass rush has been strong getting to the QB 20 times including 7 big sacks by the formidable Khalil Mack.

The Vikings offense, on the other hand, has been a disaster of injuries, bad play calls, and terrible trades. Mike Zimmers once-vaunted secondary is as leaky as the post iceberg Titanic and the season was going the same way until Dalvin Cook came up big for his team. The Defensive line is missing their top 3 players and looks to be a massive need in next year’s draft. They do have 16 sacks so far this season but most of these you can attribute to bad quarterback play or poor blocking as their pass rush usually looks like throwing a cup of water on a house fire. Against the run, the Vikings have been average which is a huge compliment for a team giving up almost 30 points per game. The secondary unit for the Vikings has unfortunately been dreadful and will be missing 4 of their top 5 cornerbacks for this tilt. Rookie Jeff Gladney will be the top corner for the Vikings this week ranking as the 50th best corner in the league per PFF and plays better in the slot than on the edge.

For player props this week there’s not a tonne that I really like. For Chicago Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney have plus matchups against the Vikings 3rd stringers but may not see a heap of targets if the Bears get up early, Mooney over 3.5 receptions look the best of it with his over 41.5 yards being an ok play as well. I wouldn’t go near the Bears backfield with uncertainty over the snap distribution and the Vikings have been strong against tight ends all season.

For the Vikings, Justin Jefferson looks like a better matchup than Adam Thielen as Thielen will have to fight with Kyle Fuller all day. Jeffersons over 56.5 yards looks ok but just remember he is a rookie and is prone to up and down games. The Bears have struggled against Tight Ends so far this season especially in the red zone allowing TEs to score touchdowns in 6 of 9 games including the last 3 straight. With Irv Smith out this week, Kyle Rudolph is the undisputed #1 in Minnesota so over 28.5 receiving yards looks strong and him getting into the endzone at 5-1 shows great value even though were not predicting a high scoring game. Dalvin Cook over 85.5 yards seems good on the surface but beware the Bears did manage to shut down Derrick Henry last week to 68 yards at 3.2 yards per carry so their gameplan this week will be similar.

The Last Word

As much as it pains me to say it I do like the Bears this week the defense is a top 5 unit in the league and they’ll be stronger on offense is a must get right week after losing to 3 consecutive playoff teams. The Vikings are on a high right now after 2 good division wins but the defensive injuries are piling up and will be without their long snapper this week which makes every field goal attempt dicey. Since 2018 the Bears have a 69% rate against the spread in division games while the Vikings have only a 35% mark after a win. The Bears +3.5 looks great value and will be taking some on the money line as well. The total of 44 I would think would go under with 2 average offenses but I won’t be going too hard on that with the wrong team favored winning here.